On-chain data suggests nearly half of all Bitcoin is currently held at an unrealized loss, creating potential overhead supply that could weigh on price recoveries until absorbed. According to CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn, approximately 9.31 million BTC—about 46% of circulating supply—is now underwater, the highest level since the 2022 bear market.
Supply in Loss Hits Highest Since 2022
The “Supply in Loss” metric tracks how much Bitcoin is held below its holders’ cost basis. Maartunn noted that the indicator fell to minimal levels around the most recent all-time high, then expanded sharply as prices reversed lower. The latest reading of 9.31 million BTC suggests a large cohort of investors is waiting to exit at breakeven or a small profit, a behavior that can create resistance during rebounds.
URPD Highlights Key Overhead Zones
Analysis of the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD)—which maps where coins last moved on-chain—shows loss-making supply concentrated in two price bands: $80,000–$95,000 and $105,000–$120,000. Given the distance between those bands and recent spot levels, many holders in these ranges may remain underwater for now. Any upward moves could face incremental selling pressure as these investors look to reduce losses.
“That overhead supply must be absorbed and redistributed to stronger hands before a durable bottom can emerge,” Maartunn said.
Path to a Durable Bottom May Take Time
During the prior bear market, the Supply in Loss metric ultimately fell as a prolonged consolidation phase transferred coins from weaker to more resolute holders. If a similar pattern plays out, the market may require time and volume to digest overhead supply before a lasting price floor is established.
Market Snapshot
After rebounding from lows near $60,000, Bitcoin has been trading sideways around $68,600, as of the time referenced in the analysis.