Bitcoin’s next directional move could hinge on whether it holds a key support area around $74,000, according to crypto analyst and Elliott Wave specialist Gert van Lagen. In a two-week chart shared on X, van Lagen outlined a market structure that he says favors another bullish leg if this zone remains intact.
Analyst Flags $74K–$74.4K as Critical Support
Van Lagen’s analysis centers on a support band between $74,000 and $74,400 that he describes as the line between bull-market continuation and a structural breakdown. He argues that Bitcoin’s recent pullback fits within a broader corrective pattern rather than signaling the start of a sustained downtrend, provided the price stays above this area.
The analyst’s chart frames the latest decline as part of a larger corrective Wave IV following a multi-year rally. The retracement has brought Bitcoin back into a prior consolidation zone without, in his view, disrupting the overarching bullish structure. Van Lagen noted that Bitcoin has shown similar behavior in earlier cycle phases, where deep retracements preceded renewed upside.
Elliott Wave Context: Setting Up for Wave V?
Elliott Wave Theory posits that markets move in repeating cycles of five-wave advances and three-wave corrections. Van Lagen suggests the current action resembles a Wave II correction within a broader Wave V advance. Under that framework, holding the $74,000–$74,400 region would keep the bullish count intact; a decisive break below would invalidate the setup and prompt a reassessment of the market structure. He added that he does not expect this support to fail.
Projected Path If Support Holds
If the critical support holds, van Lagen’s chart projects the start of an impulsive rally that could take Bitcoin back above recent highs, signaling the end of the corrective phase. He outlines a potential path in which sub-wave 3 of Wave V targets the $260,000 to $320,000 range, historically the strongest portion of a five-wave advance. A final Wave V extension could, in his view, push Bitcoin toward $400,000—more than 4x from recent trading levels around $78,000 cited in his analysis.
What to Watch
- Price behavior around $74,000–$74,400: sustained support would keep the bullish Elliott Wave count viable.
- Confirmation of momentum: a break above prior highs would support the thesis that Wave V is underway.
- Invalidation risk: a sustained move below the support zone would suggest a deeper structural shift.
As with all market models, Elliott Wave counts are interpretive and can change with new price action. Van Lagen’s projections depend on Bitcoin maintaining the identified support zone and continuing to mirror prior cycle behavior.