Only about 10,000 Bitcoin are currently both vulnerable to quantum attacks and economically worthwhile targets, according to new analysis from digital asset manager CoinShares. The firm adds that most at-risk holdings sit in wallets with less than 100 BTC and estimates it could take roughly a thousand years to compromise each one.
CoinShares’ key findings
- Approximately 10,000 BTC are deemed practically at risk and worth attacking under current assumptions, CoinShares claims.
- The majority of quantum-vulnerable funds reside in smaller wallets holding under 100 BTC.
- CoinShares estimates a successful compromise of a single vulnerable wallet could take on the order of a millennium.
Why most Bitcoin is not immediately exposed
Quantum risk in Bitcoin is primarily associated with addresses where public keys are already revealed on-chain. Bitcoin uses elliptic curve cryptography, and public keys are typically exposed only when coins are spent, limiting the immediate attack surface. As a result, most holdings are not openly vulnerable unless their public keys have been disclosed through prior transactions.
Context on the quantum threat
While large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computers could, in theory, threaten elliptic curve cryptography, current capabilities fall far short of what would be required to break Bitcoin keys at scale. Researchers and developers continue to explore post-quantum cryptographic approaches as a potential long-term mitigation, but CoinShares’ assessment suggests limited practical risk in the near term.