Bitcoin’s latest pullback is drawing comparisons to past cycle tops, with one analyst warning that price could slide toward $35,000 in the near term. On-chain data shows weak spot ETF demand and rising whale deposits to exchanges, adding to the cautious outlook. As of publication, Bitcoin traded near $66,015, down about 1.7% over the past 24 hours.
Analyst Sees Fractal Echoes of 2017 and 2021
A technical analysis shared on X by crypto analyst Chiefy suggests Bitcoin is mirroring macro structures that followed the 2017 and 2021 peaks. The comparison examines three major highs — roughly $21,000 in 2017, $69,000 in 2021, and the recent all-time high just above $126,000 — and highlights the steep retracements that followed the first two tops.
- After the 2017 peak, Bitcoin fell about 84% into the 2018 bear-market low.
- Following the 2021 peak, the decline reached roughly 77%.
Chiefy described the current structure as closely aligned with those prior cycles and warned of a potential capitulation phase if the pattern holds. A similar percentage drawdown from the recent high would place Bitcoin in the $30,000–$35,000 range. The analyst added that such a move could unfold within about 10 days if the symmetry persists.
ETF Outflows and Whale Deposits Weigh on Sentiment
On-chain indicators point to subdued demand and mounting sell pressure. According to Glassnode, the 30-day simple moving average of net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has been negative for much of the past 90 days, suggesting a lack of sustained inflows to absorb selling.
Data from CryptoQuant’s Whales Inflow Signal shows a sharp increase in large BTC transfers to Binance as prices fell from $95,000 to $60,000. Monthly average whale inflows rose from around 1,000 BTC in late January to nearly 3,000 BTC in February, including a notable single-day spike of roughly 12,000 BTC on February 6. Since February 1, seven trading days have seen more than 5,000 BTC in daily inflows from large holders. Rising exchange inflows from whales — typically entities with substantial holdings — are often interpreted as a sign of heightened selling pressure.
Price Snapshot
Bitcoin changed hands around $66,015 at the time of writing, down 1.7% over the past 24 hours. The market remains focused on whether the current structure evolves into a deeper correction reminiscent of prior cycle denouements, or stabilizes if demand returns to spot ETFs and whale selling abates.