Bitcoin’s move above $70,000 has reignited debate over whether a new uptrend is underway or whether the market is still building a base. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), crypto analyst CrypFlow outlined a case that Bitcoin may be in the early stages of forming a major cycle bottom, suggesting October 2026 could mark the launchpad for the next full-scale bull market. The view draws on multi-year trendlines, prior cycle behavior, and signals from the Stochastic RSI momentum indicator.
Multi-Year Trendline and 2021 Resistance Confluence
On the monthly chart, Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market value, continues to respect an ascending trendline that connects the late-2018 and late-2022 cycle lows, according to CrypFlow. Price action is currently testing that structure as support.
The analyst also highlights a key horizontal zone near the 2021 cycle high around $69,000 that is being retested as support. This role reversal—prior resistance acting as support—at the intersection with the rising trendline is viewed as a potentially important base-building area. CrypFlow notes that if BTC can hold above roughly $69,000 and avoid a deeper pullback into the $50,000 region, the structure would resemble the setup seen around the 2022 bottom, when a rising trendline converged with resistance from the 2017 peak.
Time Matters: Stochastic RSI Signals
CrypFlow emphasizes time-based analysis over price levels alone. Using the Stochastic RSI on the monthly timeframe, the analyst compared how long the indicator remained below the zero line during major bear markets. In the 2018–2019 cycle, it stayed below that threshold for roughly 365 days before a durable reversal, and a similar one-year stretch occurred in the 2022–2023 downturn, according to the post.
By contrast, CrypFlow estimates the Stochastic RSI in the current cycle has been below zero for about 120 days so far. Based on that pattern, the analyst outlines a scenario in which Bitcoin could complete a double-bottom formation later this year—potentially around October 2026—before the next major bull phase begins. This does not imply an imminent sharp decline; rather, it suggests the market may still be completing the slow, grinding work typical of cycle bottoms.
Key Levels to Watch
Levels cited in the analysis include the rising multi-year trendline on the monthly chart and the ~$69,000 area. Holding this confluence as support would add weight to the base-building thesis. A decisive break lower and a revisit of the $50,000s would weaken it and argue for a longer consolidation.