Bitcoin traded in a narrow range over the weekend after a volatile week, with traders weighing macro uncertainty and regional tensions. On-chain signals highlighted by a prominent analyst suggest the market may still be in a distribution phase led by long-term holders, keeping downside risk in focus.
On-Chain Signals Point to Ongoing Distribution
An on-chain analyst known as Boris argued on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin remains within structures that historically precede downside moves. The assessment centers on a rising Long-Term Holder (LTH) Active Supply Ratio, which indicates increased activity among wallets that typically hold coins for extended periods.
According to the analyst, periods of rising LTH activity often reflect the strategic redistribution of coins as prices rise. This process can lead to sideways price action as supply meets demand. Once distribution has run its course and demand weakens, the market is more vulnerable to downward moves.
Boris noted that the current uptick in LTH activity began before a notable price retracement, stating that BTC fell from around $95,000 to nearly $60,000 since this increase started. Despite the pullback, the upward trend in LTH supply activity has persisted, which the analyst views as a sign that “even if we see upward movements in the coming weeks, these are likely to represent a liquidity illusion occurring within the broader distribution phase.”
Support or Liquidity Zone?
The $60,000–$62,000 area has acted as support in recent sessions. However, Boris cautioned that, given the current structure, this zone may function more as a liquidity generation area—an order-rich region where stop-loss and limit orders cluster—within a broader redistribution phase. If that interpretation holds, it could limit the durability of bounces and leave the market susceptible to further downside.
Based on the available on-chain evidence, the analyst said a renewed move lower toward year-end appears more likely, while acknowledging that short-term rallies can occur within a distribution environment.
Market Snapshot
As of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $67,628, down about 1% over the past 24 hours. Price stability over the weekend followed a week of sharp swings, with sentiment still sensitive to macro headlines and risk appetite across broader markets.