A crypto market analyst says a simple, quarter-based Fibonacci framework that helped flag Bitcoin’s 2022 bear-market low is now signaling the next macro phase, with the 1.618 extension near $62,084 acting as support and a potential expansion target at the 2.618 level around $393,874 if the structure holds.
Analyst Revisits 2022 Bottom Call
In a March 8 post on X (formerly Twitter), crypto analyst Chetan Gurjar revisited a projection he made in December 2022 about Bitcoin’s bear-market trough. While he noted the timing was off by a few months, he said the price region he targeted—around $15,000—ultimately aligned with the late-2022 bottom.
Gurjar’s method applies macro Fibonacci extension levels to Bitcoin’s quarterly chart, focusing on how price historically interacts with the 1.618 level, which he places near $62,084. He highlighted that during the 2021 bull run, Bitcoin repeatedly failed to sustain quarterly closes above this zone, citing rejections on the second- and fourth-quarter candles of that year. Those failures framed the 1.618 as significant resistance in that cycle’s structure.
1.618 Level Flips From Resistance to Support
According to Gurjar’s latest chart, the 1.618 Fibonacci level has since flipped from resistance to support on the quarterly timeframe. After a breakout above $62,084, Bitcoin has not posted a quarterly close below that level, he said. The chart shows two subsequent quarters that retested the zone; one quarterly wick even dipped below $50,000 before price reclaimed $62,084 on a closing basis. As of the current quarter, Bitcoin is again trading above the same macro level, which the analyst interprets as a bullish quarterly retest.
Targets and Risks on the Quarterly Framework
Projecting the same structure forward, Gurjar points to the 2.618 Fibonacci extension near $393,874 as the minimum macro target if the support at 1.618 continues to hold. He also allows for volatility during an expansion phase, suggesting price wicks could extend toward the $500,000 region.
The analyst cautions that deeper quarterly wicks remain possible depending on broader market conditions, including potential weakness in altcoins. Still, within this framework, the key structural assumption is that Bitcoin maintains the 1.618 level on a quarterly closing basis.
Why It Matters
Fibonacci extensions are widely used by technical analysts to map areas of potential resistance, support, and trend exhaustion across timeframes. While such tools do not guarantee outcomes, quarterly levels can provide a longer-term lens on market structure. Gurjar’s framework suggests that Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the 1.618 level on quarterly closes may be a critical marker for the next phase of its macro trend.