Bitcoin rebounded on Friday with a roughly 4% gain, briefly retesting the $74,000 resistance that has capped the market for the past month before easing to around $72,215. Despite the bounce, on-chain signals suggest the leading cryptocurrency may not have found a durable bottom, according to CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom.
Price Action: Retest at the Top of the Range
BTC’s advance brought prices back to the upper boundary of a multi-week consolidation. The $74,000 level remains a key resistance that has limited upside since early attempts to break higher. The move has renewed debate over whether the market is carving out a base or preparing for another leg lower.
On-Chain Signals Flag Ongoing “Stress Test”
Sunny Mom characterized current conditions as a “stress test” for the market and argued that a definitive bottom has yet to form. She highlighted several on-chain metrics:
- 6–12 month cohort under pressure: Investors who acquired BTC 6–12 months ago are “underwater,” with their Realized Price clustered around $100,000, according to Mom. Losses among this mid-term group may continue to weigh on price until the imbalance clears.
- MVRV at 1.2: The Market Value to Realized Value ratio near 1.2 is often viewed as a dollar-cost-averaging zone for long-term investors. Historically, more pronounced cyclical bottoms have coincided with MVRV falling below 1.0, indicating capitulation.
- Long-term holder base still light: A resilient price floor typically coincides with long-term holders (coins held >2 years) accounting for more than 20% of Realized Cap—the aggregate cost basis of all coins. Mom estimates this group currently represents about 15%, implying weaker structural support.
Two Paths to a Durable Bottom
Mom outlined two potential scenarios for where and how a true bottom could develop:
- Black Swan flush: A sharp, fast drawdown that triggers forced liquidations among high-cost holders. While painful, this could accelerate the bottoming process and establish a floor within one to two months.
- “The Great Boring”: Institutions maintain positions while BTC ranges between roughly $60,000 and $80,000 for an extended period. Under this scenario, new capital gradually matures into long-term holdings, potentially pushing the structural bottoming process into late 2026 or early 2027.
Outlook
Mom differentiates between a “Value Bottom,” where long-term dollar-cost averaging may be attractive, and a “Structural Bottom,” which she argues has not yet formed. In the near term, she expects continued volatility within the $60,000–$70,000 band as the market works through supply-demand imbalances and tests key on-chain thresholds.