Ethereum may be approaching a cyclical bottom, according to market strategist Tom Lee, who cited historical analogs and on-chain data in a presentation at the 3rd Futu Expo 2026 in Hong Kong on March 13–14. Lee referenced research from market timer Tom DeMark and said recent price action in ETH resembles major S&P 500 declines in 1987 and 2011, while on-chain cost-basis metrics suggest selling pressure could be exhausted.
Historical Analogs Point to a Potential Low
Lee said DeMark’s analysis shows an unusually close match between Ethereum’s performance since October and the S&P 500 during the 1987 crash and the 2011 selloff.
“Tom DeMark, he’s a legendary market timer, and he’s provided an analysis to us that says Ethereum, in the last few months, especially since October, is really mirroring what happened to the S&P 500 in 2011 and what happened to the S&P 500 in 1987,” Lee said. He added that the correlation to the 1987 pattern is 93%.
Based on those comparisons, Lee said an ETH bottom would align with either March 7 (if the 1987 analog holds) or the current period (if 2011 is the better fit). “Using his analysis, we think we’re at the bottom or exiting the crypto winter now,” he said.
On-Chain Realized Price Signals Holder Stress
Lee also pointed to Ethereum’s realized price—an on-chain metric estimating the average cost basis of coins based on their last on-chain movement—as a gauge of investor capitulation. He said the realized price for ETH is about $2,241 and noted how far spot prices have dipped below that metric at prior lows.
- 2022: ETH fell to roughly a 39% discount to realized price
- 2025: The discount reached about 21% before prices turned higher
- Recent period: Around a 22% discount, according to Lee
“So we’re at the level where in 2025, Ethereum started to turn higher,” Lee said, arguing that similar drawdowns versus realized price have historically coincided with market troughs.
Long-Term Context
Lee encouraged a longer-term view, saying Ethereum has outperformed major asset classes over the past decade. He estimated a 10-year return of about 49,000% for ETH, compared with approximately 11,000% for Bitcoin over the same period. He also contrasted ETH’s gains with those of Nvidia, which he called “the single best stock in the US,” noting it had returned about 65 times investors’ money over the decade.
Market Snapshot
As of publication, ETH was trading near $2,147. Market conditions remain volatile, and historical analogs and on-chain metrics do not guarantee future performance.