XRP is attempting to hold a long-term support zone as a market analyst projects a 30%–40% relief rally in the coming weeks. The move, if it materializes, could carry the token toward the $1.80–$2.00 area before reaching what the analyst describes as a “critical inflection point.”
XRP Tests 200-Week EMA After Range Rejection
Following a 2.5% intraday pullback on Friday that retested the $1.43 area, XRP rebounded to remain above $1.40. The token has traded in a $1.34–$1.50 range over the past month, briefly breaking higher during this week’s market rally. From weekend lows, XRP climbed roughly 15% to a one-month high near $1.60 on Tuesday before broader volatility pulled it back into the range.
On the weekly timeframe, XRP has been oscillating around its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $1.41. After multiple closes below that level, the latest weekly candle showed a reclaim above it—an area some traders view as a key long-term support to defend.
Analyst Flags Potential 30%–40% Relief Rally
The analyst known as ChardNerd said XRP is “defending a lifeline as it clings to support,” adding that he expects continuation toward a “critical inflection point” in the coming weeks. In his view, a sustained hold above the 200-week EMA would set up a retest of resistance near $1.50 and open the door to a relief rally toward the 20-week and 50-week EMAs, estimated between $1.80 and $2.00.
“XRP could potentially have some sort of relief in the coming months, up towards these EMAs, which sit between $1.80 and $2.00. And if it gets this relief, that will mark a very critical inflection point,” he said, emphasizing that maintaining the 200-week EMA is key for the bullish case.
Historical Parallels and Timeline
ChardNerd noted that in the prior cycle, after peaking in 2021, XRP fell back to the 200-week EMA, staged a relief rally to the 20-week and 50-week EMAs, then failed and eventually revisited bear-market lows. He argues the current structure echoes that pattern: after a significant retracement from a July 2025 peak, XRP has once again returned to test the 200-week EMA.
Previously, a relief phase developed around March 2022 and lasted roughly three months, he said, while cautioning that markets do not need to repeat exactly. If the current move does not reach the $1.80–$2.00 area imminently, he sees a possibility that the relief could extend into April or May—contingent on broader market conditions and Bitcoin’s performance. The analyst also outlined a potential follow-up scenario in which a push to $2 is followed by a deeper pullback toward $0.80–$0.70.
Key Levels to Watch
- Support: 200-week EMA near $1.41.
- Immediate resistance: $1.50.
- Upper targets (relief rally): 20-week and 50-week EMAs around $1.80–$2.00 (analyst estimate).
- Risk scenario: Failure to hold the 200-week EMA could invalidate the relief setup and shift focus to lower supports (analyst view).
XRP is the native token of the XRP Ledger, a blockchain designed for fast, low-cost value transfer. Price action in major crypto assets often correlates with Bitcoin, which the analyst cited as an important variable for the trajectory of any near-term rally.