Ethereum is showing early signs of weakening momentum as a key relative strength index (RSI) trendline has broken on the ETH/USDT pair, while the ETH/BTC pair hovers near a similar signal. According to market analysis from Umair Crypto, a dual confirmation across both pairs could increase the risk of a sharper move lower, potentially mirroring a recent breakdown sequence seen in Solana.
RSI Breakdown on ETH/USDT Raises Caution
The RSI trendline break on the ETH/USDT pair suggests an initial loss of momentum. The RSI is a widely used technical indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements; a trendline break can indicate a shift from strength to weakness. The analysis argues that this initial signal on the dollar pair sets the stage for further downside risk if confirmed elsewhere.
ETH/BTC Sits at Key Support as Dual Confirmation Risk Mounts
While the ETH/BTC pair is still holding support, the analysis expects it to “follow suit,” with a new lower low viewed as likely once that support gives way. This setup resembles a recent sequence in Solana, where the USDT pair’s RSI trendline broke first while the BTC pair initially appeared resilient before ultimately weakening. A similar alignment in Ethereum would remove support across both the USD- and BTC-denominated pairs, a backdrop that often precedes more decisive downside.
Derivatives Expiries Could Amplify Moves
The analyst also flags near-term catalysts that may heighten volatility. More than $2.1 billion in BTC and ETH options are set to expire today, coinciding with U.S. equities’ “triple witching,” a quarterly event when stock index futures, stock index options, and single-stock options expire simultaneously. Triple witching sessions can involve trillions in notional exposure and tend to magnify prevailing market momentum, though they do not determine direction. With Ethereum’s technical structure tilting weaker, expiries could accelerate any move that is already in motion.
Market Context and Outlook
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown resilience through a challenging macro environment, but the analysis notes signs of fatigue on Ethereum’s charts. If ETH/BTC confirms the weakness already signaled by ETH/USDT, the probability of a lower low increases, and a more volatile phase could follow. Traders are watching for confirmation on the BTC pair and for price action around options expiries to gauge whether bearish pressure will intensify.