Brent crude’s sharp pullback has not yet lifted a macro lid on crypto. Market analyst Sam Daodu argues Bitcoin and XRP will struggle to mount sustainable rallies until oil retreats further toward $85–$80, easing inflation pressures and interest-rate expectations that have weighed on risk assets since late February.
Oil Pullback Hasn’t Eased Rate Pressure
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell nearly 12% on Monday to trade around $94. Daodu contends energy prices remain the key link between the ongoing Middle East conflict and crypto market direction. Elevated oil sustains inflationary pressure and keeps the Federal Reserve cautious, he said, noting that the Fed’s March 19 guidance pushed out expectations for policy easing.
When prospects for rate cuts fade, capital tends to rotate away from risk-on assets. Crypto, which still behaves like a high-beta segment of markets, has reflected that dynamic. Daodu also pointed to structural features that make digital assets especially sensitive to geopolitical shocks: 24/7 trading means crypto often absorbs the first wave of risk sentiment over weekends or overnight, when liquidity can be thinner and price moves sharper.
Bitcoin and XRP Back Off Highs
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading just above the $70,000 level, while XRP consolidates near $1.44. Both have eased from last week’s highs, with BTC down roughly 4% and XRP about 5% on the week after encountering resistance. Daodu linked the pullbacks to the same macro forces that have periodically driven oil above $100 amid escalation headlines tied to the Strait of Hormuz since late February.
What Could Unlock a Sustainable Rally
Despite the headwinds, Daodu sees constructive technicals beneath the surface. Bitcoin has posted higher lows on successive sell-offs since late February, suggesting dip buyers remain active. XRP has defended a $1.35–$1.45 range through recent volatility, indicating resilience even as rallies stall.
In Daodu’s view, oil is the decisive variable. A Brent retreat toward $80–$85—potentially on signs of a ceasefire or diplomatic progress—would likely ease inflation concerns and give the Fed room to consider rate cuts. Renewed expectations for easier policy could pull risk capital back into crypto and help BTC and XRP sustain gains. Conversely, if energy prices remain north of $100, he expects positive crypto catalysts to be repeatedly offset by the inflation-and-rates backdrop.
Bullish Drivers Still on Hold
Daodu noted that several supportive fundamentals remain in place but are overshadowed by macro conditions: continued regulatory signals distinguishing Bitcoin from securities, inflows into XRP exchange-traded products, and progress on U.S. legislative efforts such as the CLARITY Act. Those drivers, he said, are more likely to matter once energy-led inflation pressures subside.