Dogecoin (DOGE) has retested a multi-year support area near $0.090, rekindling debate among market analysts over whether the largest memecoin by market capitalization has set a bottom or faces further downside. Views diverge between those highlighting a confirmed macro downtrend and others pointing to long-term trend support that has historically preceded major rallies.
Bearish Outlook: Macro Downtrend Remains in Place
Market observer Rekt Capital noted that DOGE erased most of an early-week bounce and revisited the $0.090 region on Thursday, a level that acted as resistance before turning into support in 2024. The analyst argued that Dogecoin confirmed a macro downtrend in November when it closed the month below an ascending support that had held since early 2023.
According to Rekt Capital, that downtrend began developing after a late-2024 cycle peak near $0.484. Historically, he added, DOGE has not retested its macro downtrend line until price is ready to break it and complete a post-breakout retest, suggesting the market is “unlikely to test this Macro Downtrend anytime soon.”
Rekt Capital sees DOGE currently at its range low, a key reaction area. Prior bear market behavior, he said, points to a risk that this support could be lost over time, even if a short-term rebound unfolds within a range-bound cluster. If history repeats, price may rally toward a range high and reject—potentially with upside wicks—while still falling short of the macro downtrend line. A brief relief bounce remains possible as long as the current level holds, but the analyst cautioned that a deeper bottom could form in the months ahead at lower levels.
Bullish Case: Decade-Long Trendline and Falling Wedge
In contrast, analyst Trader Tardigrade contends that DOGE may have already bottomed. He points to a long-term rising trendline that has held for roughly a decade and is now being retested for a third time. Previous retests signaled major advances: the 2017 touch preceded a move into DOGE’s 2018 all-time high (ATH) near $0.017, and the 2021 retest came before the surge to its current ATH of $0.731.
The analyst argues that the coin’s macro structure remains intact despite near-term volatility and that current price action resembles prior ATH phases. He also highlights a falling wedge pattern that, in past cycles, resolved with significant upside, framing the current zone as a potential accumulation window if the pattern plays out similarly.
Key Levels and Signals to Watch
- $0.090 support: A multi-year reaction zone now under pressure; holds the near-term bounce case if maintained.
- Range high resistance: Potential rejection area if price rebounds within the current range.
- Macro downtrend line: Drawn from the late-2024 cycle peak; a decisive break and retest would be needed to shift the broader bias.
- Pattern resolution: A confirmed breakout from the falling wedge on strong participation would bolster the bullish scenario.
Dogecoin, launched in 2013 as a joke and now the largest memecoin by market value, remains a barometer for speculative sentiment in the crypto market. With technical signals mixed, upcoming reactions around support, resistance, and long-term trendlines will likely set the tone for DOGE’s next directional move.