On-chain data shows XRP’s 1-year holder cohort is deeply underwater, with returns near the lowest levels since late 2022, according to analytics firm Santiment. The metric has entered what the firm calls an “Opportunity Zone,” a level that has previously coincided with market bottoms.
MVRV Turns Negative for 1-Month and 1-Year Holders
Santiment reported that XRP’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has fallen into negative territory for both 30-day and 1-year cohorts. This indicates that, on average, coins acquired over the past month and the past year are sitting at a loss.
The drawdown has been particularly severe for the longer-term group. Santiment estimates 1-year buyers are down roughly 41%, the deepest average loss since December 2022, when broader crypto markets were reeling in the aftermath of the FTX collapse.
What the MVRV Ratio Signals
The MVRV Ratio compares an asset’s market capitalization (the current value of circulating supply) to its realized capitalization (the aggregate value at which coins last moved on-chain). In effect, it gauges the average profit or loss of holders across different time horizons.
Historically, deeply negative MVRV readings can emerge near market lows as potential sellers are exhausted and recent buyers capitulate. Santiment characterizes the current 1-year MVRV level as an “Opportunity Zone,” noting: “Because cryptocurrencies are zero sum trading games, significantly negative average returns (not just a price drop, but actual trader returns) imply that there is much lower risk than average in buying or adding on to your XRP positions, due to the fact that competing traders are already in severe ‘blood in the streets’ territory.”
Outlook and Price
Whether the current loss profile is sufficient to mark a durable bottom remains uncertain. Negative MVRV has coincided with accumulation phases in prior cycles, but it does not guarantee an immediate reversal.
At press time, XRP was trading around $1.32, down nearly 2% over the past 24 hours. XRP is the native token of the XRP Ledger, a blockchain designed for fast, low-cost value transfer often discussed in the context of cross-border payments.