Bitcoin’s downturn could persist into early 2027, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who says a recurring “profit-taking cascade” typically pressures returns for about 18 months after tops, extending bear-market conditions longer than many expect.
CryptoQuant CEO Sees Prolonged Drawdown Pattern
Ki Young Ju, head of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, said the firm’s historical analyses show that broad-based profit-taking tends to weigh on prices for roughly a year and a half. If the current cycle follows a similar path, the bear market may have another year or more to run before a sustained recovery takes hold.
What Is a ‘Profit-Taking Cascade’?
A profit-taking cascade refers to a period when investors who bought earlier in the cycle begin realizing gains in large numbers. As more holders move coins to exchanges and sell, liquidity thins and downward pressure can intensify, prompting additional selling from short-term holders and momentum traders. On-chain data providers track these shifts using metrics related to realized profits and losses, exchange flows, and holder behavior.
Why It Matters
Extended bear phases influence liquidity, market depth, and risk appetite across the digital asset ecosystem. Prolonged drawdowns can affect miners’ revenues, funding conditions for startups, and the performance of altcoins that often correlate with bitcoin’s trend. While no single model can predict market outcomes with certainty, the 18-month pattern highlighted by CryptoQuant offers one framework for setting expectations around timing and volatility.
Context and Caveats
Bitcoin’s market cycles have historically included multi-quarter drawdowns following periods of rapid appreciation, though the duration and depth vary with macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and market structure. Forecasts based on historical patterns are not guarantees; changing liquidity, policy shifts, and unexpected events can alter the trajectory of any cycle.