Bitcoin’s derivatives market has yet to fully recover from last October’s liquidation wave, and several closely followed analysts warn the market may need a deeper reset before a durable bottom forms, even as spot prices hover near key levels.
Derivatives Open Interest Still Lagging
Roughly 71,000 BTC in open interest—about $11 billion at the time—was wiped out across major exchanges during a sharp shakeout in October 2025. Total open interest has not returned to pre-event levels, leaving a gap of more than 24,000 BTC and signaling that many traders remain cautious and sidelined.
Open interest tracks the value of outstanding futures and options contracts. Depressed readings can reflect reduced risk appetite or a lack of conviction among leveraged participants, both of which can amplify moves when volatility returns.
Market Split on Whether a Bottom Is In
Bitcoin ended May around $73,560, down roughly 3.4% for the month. The price action has left the market divided on whether the February low near $60,000 marked a cycle floor or if further downside lies ahead.
On-chain analyst PlanB said on June 1 that, based on his models, the probability of lower prices remains above 50%. His view centers on the share of Bitcoin supply currently in profit. In previous cycle lows, only a small portion of holders were in the green, reflecting broad capitulation. Today’s higher proportion of profitable coins suggests conditions have not yet mirrored prior bottoming phases, he argued.
Key Levels to Watch
- 200-week moving average (200WMA): Near $61,000, a long-term trend gauge that has historically offered strong support in major drawdowns.
- Realized price: Around $53,000, representing the average on-chain cost basis across the entire Bitcoin supply and often viewed as a deeper support zone.
- $70,000 spot level: Trader Ted Pillow flagged a daily close below $70,000 as a potential trigger for renewed selling, noting repeated tests of this area in recent weeks.
What a Durable Bottom Might Require
The emerging consensus from the analysts is that a cleaner flush may be needed before a sustained recovery. Derivatives open interest remains subdued, sentiment appears fragile, and the share of supply in profit has not fallen to levels typically associated with cycle lows. A probe of the 200WMA near $61,000—or, in a deeper move, the realized price around $53,000—would bring the current setup closer to historical bottoming patterns.
As always, market conditions can change quickly. For now, participants are watching whether Bitcoin can hold above near-term support or whether a broader reset will test the longer-term levels highlighted by on-chain and technical indicators.