Solana’s native token, SOL, has logged eight straight months of declines for the first time on record, placing the high-throughput layer-1 network at a key inflection point. While the trend remains bearish, some analysts note that similar patterns in past cycles preceded periods of accumulation and subsequent recoveries.
Eight Consecutive Red Months Mark a First for SOL
In a recent market review, crypto analyst Crypto Patel highlighted that SOL has printed eight consecutive red monthly candles, an unprecedented streak in the asset’s history. The analyst compared the move to Solana’s prior bear-market slide from a late-2021 peak near $260 to roughly $8 at the lows. During that downturn, SOL produced nine red monthly candles in total, though not consecutively.
Patel noted that, amid the current drawdown, SOL has fallen from around $253 into the mid-$60s while forming the eight-month streak, with a ninth monthly candle now taking shape. If historical behavior were to rhyme, the analyst suggested the market could be carving out a macro accumulation zone in the $50–$80 range. Patel also outlined a longer-term, bullish scenario in which a future cycle expansion might carry SOL toward the $500–$1,000 region. These projections are speculative and contingent on broader market conditions.
Short-Term Structure: Ending Diagonal Signals Reversal Risk
On the 4-hour chart, analysts at Elliott Waves Academy identified what they describe as an ending diagonal pattern—typically seen as the final leg (wave five) of a bearish impulse. In Elliott Wave theory, such structures can precede a trend reversal or corrective rebound once price breaks decisively above the pattern’s upper boundary and the prior swing high.
According to the analysis, additional technical factors supporting a potential rebound include:
- A completed five-wave impulse structure that may mark wave (1)/(A) of a new sequence.
- A developing reversal pattern near the diagonal’s lower boundary.
- Internal corrective moves consistent with the expected diagonal formation.
A confirmed breakout would open the door to initial retracement targets based on prior wave lengths, with scope for extension if momentum improves. As always, chart patterns can fail, and confirmation signals are critical for trend assessment.
Why It Matters
Solana is a layer-1 blockchain designed for high throughput and low fees, supporting a growing ecosystem of decentralized applications, DeFi protocols, and consumer-focused use cases. Extended losing streaks can define investment psychology and liquidity conditions across the ecosystem. Whether SOL is establishing a base or continuing lower will likely influence developer activity, user engagement, and risk appetite across Solana’s on-chain markets.