Bitcoin extended its pullback on Thursday as prices drifted toward the closely watched $82,000 level, while gold continued to outperform. Two widely followed market analysts offered opposing interpretations of the gold–Bitcoin relationship, with one model pointing to further downside for BTC and another signaling conditions for a potential rotation back into crypto.
Gold-to-Bitcoin Ratio Flags Key Levels, Says Doctor Profit
Market analyst Doctor Profit highlighted the Gold-to-Bitcoin (GOLD/BTC) ratio as a guide to major tops and bottoms in past cycles. The ratio measures how many bitcoins equal the price of one ounce of gold. According to his framework, Bitcoin has historically:
- Topped when one ounce of gold equaled roughly 0.02 BTC
- Bottomed when one ounce of gold equaled roughly 0.11 BTC
He said this relationship marked Bitcoin’s top in 2021 and its bottom in 2022. In the current cycle, he argued the recent peak near $125,000 coincided with the ratio revisiting the 0.02 BTC-per-ounce level.
The open question, he added, is whether the market will again reach the 0.11 BTC-per-ounce level that has historically coincided with a bottom. Using illustrative scenarios, he suggested:
- If gold were around $5,500 per ounce and the ratio returned to 0.11, Bitcoin would be near $50,000
- If gold rose to $7,000 per ounce, the same ratio would imply a Bitcoin bottom near $63,000
These scenarios align with his view that Bitcoin’s cycle low could form in the $50,000–$60,000 area and that gold may continue to outperform BTC in the coming months. The assumptions and conclusions reflect his analysis and are not predictions of future prices.
Counterview: Record-Low BTC/Gold RSI Points to Rotation Risk
Offering a contrasting perspective, technical analyst Michael van de Poppe argued that gold’s outperformance may be nearing exhaustion. He pointed to the weekly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin versus gold, saying it has fallen to its lowest level on record—an indication, in his view, of extreme relative underperformance for BTC and potential mean reversion.
He also cited Bitcoin’s Z-Score, a statistical measure that compares BTC’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization while adjusting for volatility. According to van de Poppe, the current Z-Score sits below levels seen at several major historical market lows, including 2015, 2018, the March 2020 crash, and the 2022 bear-market bottom. He contends this suggests Bitcoin is deep into a bear phase and could be approaching its latter stages as part of what he calls a “big rotation” in market leadership.
Market Snapshot
At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded around $83,435, down 2.2% over 24 hours and 7% over the past week, approaching the closely watched $82,000 area. The debate over the GOLD/BTC ratio underscores a broader market split: whether gold’s momentum will persist at Bitcoin’s expense, or whether extreme relative readings set the stage for capital to rotate back into BTC.