Veteran market analyst Bob Loukas says Bitcoin has entered the final stage of its current four-year cycle and may still need another leg lower before a durable bottom forms. In a June 4 update of his “4-Year Journey,” Loukas framed the recent retest of February’s lows as consistent with historical cycle behavior and began selectively reaccumulating BTC in his model portfolio.
Final Stage of the Four-Year Cycle
Loukas argued that Bitcoin’s rebound into May—when price approached the low-$80,000 range after declining toward $60,000 in February—resembled a countertrend move within a broader bear-market structure. He noted that cycle lows rarely form on the first significant decline from the high, usually featuring at least one retest and often a lower low.
According to Loukas, Bitcoin peaked in October and later broke below its 10-month moving average, which he treats as confirmation that the prior cycle’s advance had ended. The subsequent drop into February was followed by a relief rally that stalled near $83,000—close to the $85,000 area he had expected—before reversing roughly 25% back toward the February lows.
Portfolio Moves and Key Levels
Despite warning that the cycle low may not yet be in place, Loukas said his model portfolio executed its first buy in three and a half years, adding 10 BTC around $65,000. The move brings the portfolio to roughly 58% Bitcoin and 41% cash. He emphasized this is not a bottom call, but a step toward reaccumulating at more favorable long-term levels.
Loukas identified $53,000 as a pivotal area. If reached, he said the model portfolio would deploy remaining cash to return to a full Bitcoin allocation. He described $53,000 as the approximate midpoint of the broader four-year cycle structure and estimated that a move to that level would represent about a 57% drawdown from the cycle high—severe but not unusual given Bitcoin’s historical volatility. By comparison, he noted the 2021–2022 cycle saw a peak-to-trough decline of around 77%, versus an estimated 51%–52% in the current drawdown.
Cycle Timing and Scenarios
Loukas placed the market in month 43 of the four-year cycle, entering the window in which lows typically form around the 47–48 month average. His base case is for the cycle low to materialize closer to October or November, with December also possible.
He allowed for a more constructive alternative: a shorter cycle low forming as a double bottom, followed by a base into late summer and an eventual push above the May highs. He assigned that scenario roughly a 25% probability.
Near-Term View
In the near term, Loukas sees Bitcoin as oversold enough to bounce—potentially toward the 10-week moving average around $73,000—before resuming lower. He also said Bitcoin should not trade back above the May high near $83,000–$85,000 over the next several months unless a new cycle has already begun.
At press time on June 4, BTC traded near $62,247.