On-chain data indicates sustained pressure on Bitcoin’s short-term holders, who are realizing substantial losses amid recent market volatility. Glassnode reports that this cohort’s net realized profit/loss has remained negative, with losses averaging about $0.48 billion per day after hitting a recent trough of $1.24 billion per day on February 6. Separately, CryptoQuant data shows a persistent negative Coinbase Premium Gap since mid-December, suggesting weaker U.S. spot demand.
Short-Term Holders Realize Steep Losses
According to Glassnode, the 7-day exponential moving average of Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) Net Realized Profit/Loss has been notably negative in recent weeks. The STH cohort includes coins last moved within the past 155 days, a group historically more sensitive to price swings and quicker to realize losses during downturns.
The metric plunged deep into negative territory following the pullback after October’s high, recovered toward neutral in January as prices rebounded, and then deteriorated again with the late-January and early-February decline. On February 6, the STH Net Realized Profit/Loss reached -$1.24 billion per day, before easing to around -$0.48 billion per day more recently.
Capitulation Eases, Pressure Persists
While the loss intensity has moderated from the early-February nadir, Glassnode notes the broader regime still reflects stress. “While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate,” the firm said. The data suggests that newer market entrants continue to lock in losses, underscoring fragile sentiment during price weakness.
Coinbase Premium Gap Stays Negative
Additional market structure signals point to softer U.S. spot demand. As highlighted by CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap—measuring the price difference between Coinbase’s USD pair and Binance’s USDT pair—has remained negative since mid-December. Persistent negative readings imply relatively stronger selling pressure on Coinbase, a venue heavily used by U.S.-based investors, including institutions.
Market Snapshot
Bitcoin was recently trading around $64,000, extending a multi-week pullback after January’s bounce. Continued realized losses among short-term holders and a negative Coinbase premium underscore a cautious backdrop as markets seek a more durable base.