Bitcoin may be seeing early signs of renewed U.S. spot demand as the Coinbase Premium Gap has turned positive after nearly 10 weeks in negative territory. The shift follows a period in which Bitcoin fell from about $95,000 to the mid-$60,000s in February, according to market data shared by independent analysts.
Coinbase Premium Gap Flips Positive
The Coinbase Premium Gap measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase—widely used by U.S.-based retail and institutional participants—and offshore exchanges such as Binance. Negative readings typically indicate stronger selling or weaker demand in the U.S. relative to the global market; positive readings suggest the opposite.
According to data cited by CryptoQuant analyst @IT_TECH_PL, the metric remained negative from January 1 through March 7, aligning with Bitcoin’s corrective phase. It reached a low of approximately -175 on February 2 during the steepest leg of the sell-off. As of the latest reading, the gap has shifted into positive territory at about +25.4, marking a notable reversal from the earlier extreme.
Why This Matters for U.S. Demand
Coinbase serves as a primary venue for U.S. investors, and its price premium relative to offshore markets is often treated as a proxy for U.S.-led spot demand. A sustained move back into positive territory can indicate that American participants are again paying a relative premium, consistent with net buying pressure.
While the current premium is modest compared with the depth of the prior negative stretch, it is the first consistent indication in weeks that U.S. spot interest may be returning. Whether that translates into a durable trend will depend on follow-through in volumes and broader market conditions.
Analysts Caution Downside Risk Remains
Despite improving on-chain and flow-based signals, some analysts warn the broader correction may not be complete. Technical analyst Ted Pillows highlighted the 300-week exponential moving average (EMA) as a long-term gauge that has historically coincided with major Bitcoin bottoms. In past cycles, Bitcoin has dipped more than 15% below the 300-week EMA before establishing a durable low.
The 300-week EMA is currently near $57,100. Applying the same pattern implies a potential downside probe toward roughly $50,000—about 15% below that level. This is a historical reference point rather than a prediction, and it does not guarantee that Bitcoin will revisit that area.
Key takeaways
- The Coinbase Premium Gap has turned positive (about +25.4) after a sustained negative stretch since early January, suggesting improving U.S. spot demand.
- The prior negative regime coincided with Bitcoin’s decline from around $95,000 to the mid-$60,000s.
- Some technical frameworks still allow for a potential retest lower, with the 300-week EMA near $57,100 and an historical pattern suggesting risk toward ~$50,000.