Bitcoin’s five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has fallen below gold’s for only the second time on record, according to new analysis from Fidelity Digital Assets. The crossover, which has persisted for three consecutive months to start 2026, highlights a rare period in which Bitcoin’s long-term, annualized performance trails the yellow metal.
Fidelity: Bitcoin’s Five-Year CAGR Slips Below Gold
In a “Chart Chatter” post on X, Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright said Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has been trending lower over time as the asset’s price has increased, resulting in a new and unusual crossover with gold.
“What we are seeing now in early 2026 is Bitcoin’s CAGR falling below Gold’s 5-year CAGR for just the second time in Bitcoin’s history,” Wainwright said. “We have now seen three straight months to start the year of CAGR below Gold’s.”
CAGR measures the annualized return of an asset over a set period, in this case a rolling five-year window. Bitcoin has historically maintained a higher five-year CAGR than gold, making the current divergence noteworthy.
Rare Crossover Returns, With Longer Duration
Wainwright linked the previous instance of a similar crossover to late 2022, near the end of the last bear market. “Back in 2022, we saw one such month of this occurring in December 2022, when Bitcoin’s price was bottoming out in the bear market around $15,000,” he said. “We are now once again in a bear market and below that CAGR for a longer stretch this time of three months.”
While Fidelity characterizes the current environment as a bear market, the firm did not suggest Bitcoin has lost its historical advantage. “Overall, Bitcoin has remained above Gold’s CAGR for the majority of its history,” Wainwright noted. “So this is truly a unique instance and occurrence in Bitcoin, where it is now below the CAGR of Gold.”
Gold’s Rally Raises the Bar
Gold’s side of the comparison has strengthened markedly. Spot gold closed at $2,156.61 per ounce on March 18, 2024, rose to $2,999.96 on March 18, 2025, and stood at $5,012.45 on March 17, 2026. That equates to a gain of roughly 67.1% over the past year and about 132.4% over two years, helping explain why Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has slipped beneath gold’s in early 2026.
Outlook
The key question, Fidelity suggests, is whether this crossover proves to be another late-bear-market anomaly or an early sign of a more mature, slower-growth phase for Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin has led gold on a five-year, compounded basis for most of its lifespan; the present deviation is unusual for both its occurrence and its duration.
At press time, BTC traded at $74,015.