Galaxy Research has cut its estimate for the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law this year to 10%, citing waning support ahead of a possible Senate procedural vote in September. The firm points to unresolved congressional ethics questions and intensified bank lobbying as key headwinds for the crypto-focused measure.
Galaxy Lowers Probability to 10%
According to Galaxy Research, the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in the current legislative session have fallen to one in ten. The revised outlook reflects deteriorating momentum in the Senate, where the bill could face a procedural vote next month to determine whether it advances.
Why Support Has Weakened
- Unresolved ethics rules: Ongoing questions over ethics guidelines related to digital assets have complicated the bill’s path, dampening bipartisan backing.
- Bank lobbying pressure: Increased engagement from banking industry stakeholders has further eroded support, Galaxy Research notes.
What to Watch Next
The next milestone could be a Senate procedural vote in September, which would test whether the bill has sufficient support to move forward. Even if it advances, subsequent negotiations and potential amendments would likely follow, leaving the final timeline uncertain.
Broader Context
The CLARITY Act is part of a broader push in Washington to establish clearer rules for digital assets. U.S. crypto policy has been shaped by overlapping oversight from multiple agencies, and lawmakers have pursued several approaches aimed at defining regulatory boundaries and investor protections. The latest odds from Galaxy Research underscore the challenges of navigating competing policy priorities and industry interests in the current Congress.