Goldman Sachs analysts expect gold prices to reach $4,900 per troy ounce this year, citing persistent central bank purchases as the primary driver. The bank’s base case projects official-sector buying at roughly 50 tonnes per month and does not factor in potential additional demand from gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Goldman Sachs Lifts Gold Price Outlook
In their latest outlook, Goldman Sachs analysts forecast a move to $4,900 per ounce, emphasizing structural support from central banks. The projection underscores the view that policy-driven accumulation, rather than speculative flows, is anchoring the market’s upside scenario.
Central Bank Buying Seen as Primary Driver
The bank estimates central banks will continue purchasing about 50 tonnes of gold per month this year. Official-sector buying has been a key feature of the market in recent years, as monetary authorities have diversified reserves and sought assets perceived as resilient to geopolitical and inflation risks. Industry data in 2022 and 2023 showed historically strong central bank accumulation, a trend Goldman Sachs expects to persist.
ETF Flows Excluded From Base Case
Goldman Sachs noted that its forecast does not include elevated demand for gold hedges via ETFs. ETF inflows can amplify price moves by channeling additional investment capital into physically backed funds, but the analysts framed their outlook around central bank demand as the core pillar rather than financial investor positioning.
Why It Matters for Digital Asset Markets
Gold is often viewed alongside bitcoin as a macro hedge, with both assets monitored during periods of monetary uncertainty and geopolitical stress. While Goldman Sachs’ report focuses on bullion, shifts in gold’s trajectory can influence broader risk sentiment and cross-asset narratives that crypto market participants track.