Digital-asset investment products saw heavy outflows last week, led by Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, even as spot prices rebounded on rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December. XRP-linked products were a notable exception, recording net inflows amid broader risk aversion.

Fund Flows: BTC, ETH and SOL Lead Outflows as XRP Attracts Inflows

According to a weekly report from CoinShares, crypto investment funds posted total net outflows of $1.94 billion last week. The breakdown shows pronounced de-risking from the largest vehicles:

• Bitcoin: $1.27 billion in outflows
• Ethereum: $589 million in outflows
• Solana: $156 million in outflows
• XRP: $89.3 million in inflows

XRP was among the few major altcoins to register net inflows, contrasting with broad withdrawals across digital-asset products. CoinShares tracks flows into exchange-traded products and other institutional vehicles, which can reflect shifting sentiment among professional and retail investors.

Prices Rebound on Rate-Cut Bets

Crypto prices recovered into Friday alongside a broader risk-on move driven by growing confidence in a December Fed rate cut. Odds for a cut rose from roughly 40% last week to about 82%, according to prediction markets and interest-rate futures data cited from Polymarket and CME FedWatch.

Bitcoin reclaimed key levels after last week’s sharp sell-off, trading back above $87,700 and briefly pushing above $90,000 nearly a week after dipping to around $81,000. Ethereum rebounded from support near $2,749, while XRP recovered above $2.08 after defending the $1.96 area. Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum rose about 0.70%, XRP added 0.40%, and Solana gained 0.80%, with USDC little changed around 0.03%.

Large-cap altcoins often respond quickly to improving liquidity conditions and a softer U.S. dollar. While narratives around potential future ETF developments and policy clarity continue to shape medium-term expectations for XRP, near-term moves appear closely tied to macro signals and overall risk sentiment.

Technical Picture and Key Levels

On a technical basis, Ethereum’s relative strength index (RSI) is rebounding from oversold territory, indicating early signs of seller exhaustion and the potential for stabilization. For ETH, a failure to hold recent gains could invite another test of nearby support zones, while sustained momentum would improve the short-term bias.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are attempting to base around recently reclaimed levels after recovering roughly 5%, 7% and 6% so far this week, respectively. Analysts also note Bitcoin is holding key Fibonacci support areas following last week’s decline, a development that could help underpin broader market tone if maintained.

What to Watch

• Macro catalysts: Evolving Fed rate expectations and upcoming U.S. inflation prints remain central to risk appetite across crypto.
• Flows and liquidity: Whether outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum products abate—and if XRP’s inflow trend persists—will help gauge institutional positioning.
• Derivatives and volatility: Monthly options expiry and changes in leverage may influence short-term price swings.

With sentiment still fragile after the recent drawdown, the continuation of this week’s recovery likely hinges on a combination of institutional and retail demand, improving liquidity, and steadier macro conditions.

Crypto markets steadied to start the week as Bitcoin showed signs of a potential local bottom, while Ethereum community debates and regulatory moves kept industry attention divided. Key developments included CoinShares withdrawing a U.S. filing for a staked Solana product, MoonPay securing a New York trust license, and new security warnings spanning supply-chain malware and physical extortion targeting crypto holders.

Markets: Bitcoin attempts a base as positioning shifts

Analysts noted Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) approaching oversold territory, a condition that has historically preceded short-term rebounds. Derivatives data also point to an uptick in long positioning from larger traders, suggesting some “whale” accounts are adding exposure.

On-chain watchers flagged significant Bitcoin movements, with roughly 87,000 BTC appearing to leave institution-tracked addresses within a 24-hour window. Large transfers can reflect internal reshuffling by custodians, redemptions, or risk reduction; absent clear attribution, market participants cautioned against assuming outright selling.

Macro remained a key backdrop. One analyst at Bitunix characterized conditions as a phase of “geopolitical risk repricing, technical resistance, monetary easing, and labor-market slowdown,” with capital flows skewing conservative and short-term oriented.

Ethereum: Gas debate and privacy framing

Ethereum commentator Anthony Sassano said the network’s gas limit moving toward 180 million could set a “floor” for next year, underscoring ongoing discussions about throughput and block capacity. The gas limit governs how much computation can be included per block and directly affects network throughput and transaction fees. Any increase typically raises debates around validator load, decentralization trade-offs, and client performance.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin reiterated that privacy should be treated as standard digital “hygiene” rather than an optional feature. The comment aligns with a broader industry push for default privacy protections that do not compromise compliance obligations.

Regulation and business: CoinShares pulls SOL filing; MoonPay gains NY trust license

• CoinShares withdraws U.S. staked Solana application: The digital asset manager withdrew its filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a staked Solana product, according to a recent notice. Staking components in fund structures have drawn regulatory scrutiny in the U.S., prompting several issuers to adjust or rescind proposals.
• MoonPay secures New York trust charter: MoonPay obtained a limited purpose trust license from the New York State Department of Financial Services, enabling the company to offer crypto custody and over-the-counter trading in the state. The charter expands institutional-facing services in the country’s most closely regulated digital asset market.
• UK tax proposals for DeFi: The UK advanced proposals to clarify the tax treatment of decentralized finance activities such as lending and staking, part of a broader effort to provide regulatory certainty for digital assets.
• Russia and derivatives exposure: Local reporting indicated Russian households have collectively allocated several billion rubles to cryptocurrency derivatives, with activity concentrated among a small number of large participants.

Security: Supply-chain malware, physical extortion, and wallet risks

A crypto-focused supply-chain attack drew fresh attention after reports of a self-propagating “worm” affecting developer systems. Slava Demchuk, CEO of forensics firm AMLBot, told Cointelegraph that “once a system is infected, the worm harvests secrets, replicates itself, makes private repositories public, and then continues to spread.” Demchuk said systems installing compromised packages are at risk, but there has been “no mention of wallet keys or other such assets” to date.

Separately, more than 60 cases of physical coercion and crypto-related abductions were reported across multiple jurisdictions, including France, Israel, and the UAE. Observers warn the irreversible nature of blockchain transfers makes such crimes attractive to perpetrators. Commentator Mario Nawfal noted that self-custody requires robust personal security practices, including secure storage arrangements.

Security firms also cautioned about malicious Chrome extensions targeting Solana users, while INTERPOL has highlighted cryptocurrency fraud as a global threat in recent assessments.

Stablecoin watch: Reserve Protocol’s design goals

Interest in alternative stablecoin architectures persisted. The Reserve Protocol aims to facilitate asset-backed, yield-bearing stablecoins on Ethereum through smart contracts. Its governance and insurance token, Reserve Rights (RSR), is used for protocol governance, staking to support system security, and providing insurance-like backstops designed to help maintain stability. Reserve has promoted its model as a tool for jurisdictions with high inflation, though real-world adoption varies by market and regulatory conditions.

Outlook

With crypto prices consolidating, projects emphasizing transparent governance, thorough audits, and phased rollouts are gaining traction among institutions seeking robust infrastructure. Market direction in the near term may hinge on macro policy signals and liquidity conditions, while security and regulatory clarity remain top priorities across the sector.

Bitcoin Holds Cautious Range as Analysts Weigh Recession Risks, Liquidity, and Technical Levels

Bitcoin is consolidating after sharp swings, with traders watching the monthly close, liquidity measures, and options positioning for direction. Views remain split: some see asymmetric upside if key supports hold, while others warn that thin liquidity and weak demand could force another leg lower before a sustained recovery.

Macro Backdrop and Positioning

Several strategists argue that Bitcoin is increasingly “pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” describing the current risk-reward setup as asymmetric. Gains in AI-led equities and heavy crypto leverage have widened the performance gap between bitcoin and stocks, underscoring cross-asset divergences that could amplify volatility.

Market sensitivity to policy signals remains elevated. Even subtle shifts in tone from Federal Reserve officials have been enough to reshape expectations across risk assets, particularly crypto. Traders are closely monitoring rates, liquidity, and broader equity moves for spillover effects.

Key Technical Levels and Momentum

• After a brief dip toward the $80,000 area, a bullish hammer reversal appeared on intraday charts, prompting hopes for a seasonal bounce.
• Short-term momentum improves above $88,000 on four-hour charts, but sustaining $90,000–$92,000 is viewed as essential for a trend reversal.
• One analyst, Stanley, said that if bitcoin holds above nearby support zones, a path toward $102,000 remains plausible. A drop below $88,500–$89,000, he added, would weaken bullish continuation expectations and could trigger a short-term correction.
• Other technical notes point out that price action has been trading below the 20-day and 200-day EMAs, and while RSI has lifted from oversold territory, it still lacks clear bullish divergence.

Elliott Wave Scenarios and Timelines

Some Elliott Wave analysts continue to frame the market as an ongoing corrective fourth wave, targeting a broad $86,000–$101,000 zone, from which a rally toward $164,000–$216,000 could still develop if higher lows hold.

Separately, December seasonality and post-halving dynamics are cited as potential tailwinds. Based on historical cycles, one estimate suggests bitcoin could extend gains by 25%–30% from current levels by Christmas 2025, implying a range near $120,000–$125,000. Analysts caution, however, that early bullish signals may be unreliable and that confirmation requires sustained momentum and improving liquidity.

Catalysts, Risks, and Outlook

Volatility is expected to remain elevated into year-end. Potential medium-term supports include clearer regulation and easing interest rates, which could underpin a more durable rebound into 2026. “I’m not worried about bitcoin,” one analyst noted, while adding that the broader altcoin market needs to mature as investors look for tangible revenues or staking yields rather than hype.

In a more aggressive scenario, Hayes suggested bitcoin could rebound toward $200,000–$250,000 if equity markets correct by 10%–20% and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5%, potentially prompting new liquidity measures. By contrast, Tallbacken Capital Advisors CEO Michael Purves warned that “longer term dip buying right now appears less likely and bearish momentum is reinforced,” highlighting the risk that rallies fail below resistance.

For now, bitcoin remains in a fragile equilibrium. A firm hold above the psychological $90,000 threshold would bolster bullish scenarios, while a decisive break below high-$80,000 support raises the odds of another corrective leg. Traders are watching the monthly close, liquidity gauges, and options flows for the next signal.

BlackRock moved approximately $390.8 million in Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime as its spot bitcoin ETF faced heavy November outflows, underscoring continued volatility across crypto markets.

BlackRock Moves 4,471 BTC to Coinbase Prime

BlackRock deposited around 4,471 BTC—worth roughly $390.8 million—to Coinbase Prime, an institutional trading and custody platform. The asset manager did not disclose the purpose of the transfer. Market analysts said such exchange-bound movements are often associated with liquidity needs for rebalancing or potential sales during periods of heightened volatility.

ETF Outflows Accelerate in November

The transfer comes amid a week of pronounced redemptions from BlackRock’s spot crypto products. The firm’s spot bitcoin ETF has recorded about $2.2 billion in net outflows in November, while more than $1 billion exited its Bitcoin trust and approximately $559 million left its Ethereum trust over the past week, according to market flow data cited by analysts. Earlier in the month, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) also saw more than $66 million in net outflows across two consecutive trading sessions during a sharp selloff.

Market Reaction and Price Action

Bitcoin’s price action has remained choppy. Over the last 24 hours, BTC dipped to about $86,129 before rebounding above $90,300. The move builds on a broader fourth-quarter pattern marked by swift reversals, following a late-November correction that briefly pushed prices below $80,000 and spurred profit-taking among institutional holders.

Institutional View on Bitcoin’s Role

Despite the turbulence, institutional asset managers say Bitcoin’s role in portfolios continues to evolve. In a podcast published Friday, Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, described Bitcoin’s global payments use case as “out-of-the-money option-value upside” for clients—suggesting many still view the asset primarily through a portfolio construction lens rather than as a day-to-day payment network.

Some analysts argue that ongoing integration into institutional workflows could encourage larger, more systematic allocations over time, potentially reducing volatility as market depth and liquidity improve.

Key figures

• 4,471 BTC (approx. $390.8M) transferred to Coinbase Prime
• $2.2B in November outflows from BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF
• Over $1B outflows from its Bitcoin trust and $559M from its Ethereum trust over the last week
• Bitcoin 24-hour range: $86,129 low to above $90,300

China’s Bitcoin mining sector is quietly rebounding four years after a nationwide ban, as operators tap cheap electricity and excess data center capacity in energy-rich regions. Industry estimates suggest China has regained roughly 14% of global hashrate by late October 2025, placing it third worldwide, according to Hashrate Index data cited by Reuters.

Mining Activity Returns Despite 2021 Ban

Beijing’s 2021 crackdown forced miners to shut down or relocate abroad, but recent industry data and miner accounts indicate a steady resurgence within several western and southwestern provinces, including Xinjiang. The recovery is largely occurring outside formal approval and reflects uneven enforcement across local jurisdictions.

Economics and Infrastructure Drive the Rebound

Miners and market participants say the revival is being propelled by a combination of lower energy costs, overbuilt compute infrastructure, and improved mining economics as Bitcoin’s price climbed in October.

• Cheap electricity in energy-rich provinces
• Unused energy capacity and surplus data centers
• Improved profitability on higher Bitcoin prices
• Policy ambiguity and softer enforcement in some locales

“The resurgence of mining activity in China is one of the most important signals the market has seen in years,” said Patrick Gruhn, CEO of crypto market infrastructure provider Perpetuals.com, in comments reported by Reuters. Gruhn added that the trend raises questions about decentralization as hashrate concentrates among a few leading jurisdictions.

China Regains Global Standing

After its market share fell to near zero in 2021, China has climbed back to an estimated 14% of global hashrate as of late October, Hashrate Index data show. That recovery positions the country behind only two other nations by mining capacity. The resurgence underscores the pull of low-cost power and available rack space created by a surge in data center construction over the past two years.

What to Watch

Industry participants are watching whether Beijing formalizes tolerance for mining in certain regions or reasserts enforcement. Concentration risks remain a focal point for the Bitcoin network as a handful of countries now dominate global hashrate. For now, economic incentives supporting underground operations—especially in Xinjiang and other energy-abundant provinces—show few signs of fading.