Bitcoin has entered a historically attractive value range but has yet to reach the deep-discount levels that marked prior cycle lows, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. In an interview with Crypto Consulting Institute’s Joe Shew, Edwards said on-chain metrics point to value for long-term investors, but he stopped short of calling a durable bottom, describing the market as “closer to the bottom than the top.”
Valuation: Attractive, But Not “Deep Value”
Edwards said Bitcoin is trading within a historical value band based on on-chain data, yet not at the “deep value” levels that have previously delivered standout opportunities. Capriole currently holds a small net long position, he noted, but the price area that would make him “super excited” sits lower, around the estimated production-cost band of approximately $50,000 to $60,000, with the low-to-mid $50,000s looking particularly compelling. Historically, Bitcoin has spent months in this zone during major cycle lows, he said.
While value is improving, Edwards cautioned that it is not sufficient on its own to confirm a bottom. “As with any asset, you can be in a value zone for a long time,” he said, pointing to the need for a clearer catalyst.
- Deeper capitulation
- A decisive technical breakout
- More durable evidence of renewed demand
Institutional Flows: Positive Trend, Limited Signal
One of the more constructive developments, in Edwards’ view, is institutional participation through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries. He emphasized that net buying by these entities is a key indicator, especially when inflows exceed daily mined supply. “If it’s net positive, especially if it’s above the amount of Bitcoin mined per day, then that is really positive. We’ve seen all the major price appreciation when that’s net positive,” he said.
However, Edwards added that most of these buyers remain underwater. He estimates about 80% of ETFs and treasury vehicles are below their cost basis, consistent with what he called “typical bear market vibes.” Spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in the United States in January 2024 and have become a major conduit for institutional and retail demand.
Levels to Watch
Edwards said a stronger near-term signal would be sustained positive flows while Bitcoin holds above $70,000, with a weekly close above roughly $71,500 serving as a line in the sand for a more constructive short-term outlook. Even then, he cautioned that a move into the mid-$70,000s or low $80,000s would not necessarily resolve the broader bearish market structure.
Quantum Risk Overhang
Edwards identified quantum computing as the biggest overhang limiting Bitcoin’s upside this cycle. In his view, the market has partially priced in the risk that quantum advances could threaten current cryptographic standards. He argued that until Bitcoin Core developers publicly prioritize mitigations, new all-time highs may be difficult to achieve. “I honestly think we may not see new all-time highs until it’s addressed by the core team,” he said, adding that open engagement from a handful of core developers could spark a meaningful repricing to the upside.
Despite this, Edwards sees the macro backdrop as broadly supportive for hard assets, citing strong liquidity conditions and gold’s outperformance versus equities. Under normal circumstances, he suggested, this would also favor Bitcoin—keeping the asset in value territory, even if not yet at deep-value levels.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $71,466.