Coinbase could emerge as one of the biggest corporate beneficiaries of the United States’ new federal stablecoin framework after the GENIUS Act became law in July 2025. The exchange’s stablecoin revenue rose 48% last year, and analysts say clearer rules could accelerate adoption of USD Coin (USDC), bolstering a comparatively steady and high-margin business line for the company.
Stablecoin Revenue Surges, Cushioning Market Volatility
Coinbase generated an estimated $1.35 billion in stablecoin-related revenue in 2025, up from $911 million in 2024, according to Bloomberg analysts Paul Gulberg and Samuel Radowitz. That segment accounted for roughly 19% of total annual revenue.
Unlike trading fees that fluctuate with crypto market activity, stablecoin income for Coinbase primarily comes from interest earned on reserves backing USDC, issued by Circle. Those reserves are largely invested in U.S. Treasuries and other low-risk instruments. Under Coinbase’s agreement with Circle, the exchange receives a share of the interest generated, making the business more predictable and generally higher margin than transaction-based revenue.
The value of that stability became more apparent late in 2025, when Bitcoin and broader crypto markets fell sharply and Coinbase’s fourth-quarter revenue declined about 20%. Stablecoin-related income remained comparatively steady during the period, the analysts noted.
GENIUS Act Sets National Rules For Stablecoins
The GENIUS Act established a federal framework for stablecoin issuance and oversight, addressing a key barrier for wider use of dollar-backed tokens in areas such as cross-border payments and merchant settlements. By creating a unified regulatory structure, the law could reduce operational and compliance frictions for issuers and institutions, potentially expanding USDC’s role in real-world transactions.
Broader adoption would likely increase USDC’s circulating supply, requiring larger reserves to back the token. As those reserves are invested in Treasuries and similar instruments, the resulting interest income would grow accordingly. Because Coinbase shares in that yield, a larger USDC float could directly translate into higher revenue for the exchange.
Outlook Hinges On Adoption And Rewards Programs
Gulberg and Radowitz estimate Coinbase’s USDC-related revenue could rise two to seven times from current levels under favorable conditions. Hitting the upper end of that range may depend on whether Coinbase can continue offering rewards to customers who hold USDC, which the analysts say could accelerate adoption.
Even if reward programs are limited or adjusted amid ongoing policy discussions around the CLARITY Act, the clearer environment established by the GENIUS Act is still expected to support meaningful growth in stablecoin usage, they added.
Market Reaction
Coinbase shares (NASDAQ: COIN) climbed toward $185 on Wednesday, up about 22% over the past 24 hours.