Pseudonymous trader Pentoshi described ether as a “cursed asset” stuck in a “lost decade,” arguing the cryptocurrency now trades near levels seen nine years ago and, when adjusted for inflation, sits roughly 14% below its 2017 peak. The remarks have reignited debate over how crypto performance should be measured across market cycles.
Trader’s Claim: Flat Performance in Real Terms
According to Pentoshi, ether’s current valuation is comparable to prices from around 2017, and on a consumer-price-inflation–adjusted basis, its real value is still below that cycle’s high by about 14%. The assessment focuses on purchasing power rather than headline price, framing returns in “real” terms after inflation.
Nominal vs. Inflation-Adjusted Benchmarks
Ether’s nominal price reached an all-time high in November 2021, well above 2017 levels. However, inflation-adjusted comparisons can yield different conclusions, depending on the reference period, the inflation index used, and whether interim peaks are considered. Real-return analysis aims to measure how much purchasing power an asset has gained or lost over time, a lens that can diverge meaningfully from nominal price charts during periods of elevated inflation.
Context: Ethereum’s Evolving Fundamentals
Beyond price, Ethereum has undergone major technical and economic changes in recent years. The network transitioned from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake in September 2022 (the Merge), and the August 2021 fee update (EIP-1559) began burning a portion of transaction fees, at times reducing net issuance. Scaling efforts have also advanced, including the Dencun upgrade in 2024 that introduced EIP-4844 (proto-danksharding) to lower data costs for layer-2 rollups. These developments affect network activity and ether’s supply dynamics, factors often cited by analysts when evaluating longer-term value.
What to Watch
- Macro conditions, including inflation and interest rates, which influence risk appetite and real-return comparisons.
- Regulatory developments that could affect market access, product availability, and institutional participation.
- Progress on Ethereum’s roadmap, particularly further scaling milestones and their impact on transaction costs and network usage.