Leaked Fundstrat guidance flags early-2026 crypto pullback, setting lower targets for Bitcoin, Ether and Solana
A document circulating on X and attributed to Fundstrat Global Advisors warns of a “meaningful drawdown” in the first half of 2026, projecting lower price ranges for major cryptocurrencies. The report has not been publicly released by Fundstrat, and its authenticity has not been verified. The outlook contrasts with recent bullish public comments from Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee.
What the leaked guidance suggests
Screenshots shared on X appear to show internal strategy guidance for 2026 that outlines a potential reset in crypto markets early in the year, followed by improved conditions later in 2026. The ranges cited include:
- Bitcoin (BTC): $60,000–$65,000
- Ether (ETH): $1,800–$2,000
- Solana (SOL): $50–$75
The document frames the projected pullback as part of a broader cycle, suggesting possible buying opportunities later in 2026 if the reset materializes.
Contrast with Tom Lee’s public outlook
The reported guidance diverges from Tom Lee’s recent comments, in which he has reiterated a constructive long-term view on Bitcoin and suggested the asset could reach a new all-time high before January 2026. Lee has also cautioned that the New Year could begin with a brief 10%–15% correction, highlighting potential near-term volatility even within a bullish framework.
Broader market views for 2026
Other institutional outlooks for 2026 remain mixed:
- Fidelity’s director of macro has suggested the traditional four-year cycle may be fading, with Bitcoin potentially finding a bottom near $65,000 during 2026.
- Grayscale has argued that Bitcoin could see significant strength in the first half of 2026, citing macro demand for alternative stores of value and improving U.S. regulatory clarity.
- Pantera Capital expects 2026 themes to include tokenized real-world assets, advances in AI-related security, increased institutional adoption, and a potential uptick in crypto-related IPO activity.
Key takeaway
The circulating Fundstrat guidance underscores a more cautious path into early 2026 for digital assets, with downside ranges for BTC, ETH and SOL that imply a significant retracement from recent highs. With the document unverified and industry forecasts divided, market participants are weighing the risk of an early-2026 reset against expectations for improving conditions later in the year.