Bitcoin’s climb back to $100,000 in 2026 remains a widely watched target, but a growing bearish case argues the move is slipping out of reach as momentum fades below key resistance. Crypto analyst Alex Mason said on X that Bitcoin’s price is trapped in a weakening ascending channel, making a six-figure break this year unlikely without a decisive shift in trend.
Analyst Flags “Ascending Channel” Trap Below $80,000
Since February, Bitcoin has advanced within an ascending channel, forming higher highs and higher lows off a low just above $60,000. While that structure can appear constructive, Mason contends it has masked distribution, with each push higher losing steam and reinforcing resistance near the upper boundary of the channel.
According to the analyst, the pattern has given the impression of building strength toward $100,000, but the underlying follow-through has weakened. As price slides back into the channel’s lower half, pressure is mounting on the key support trendline that has anchored the recovery since late winter.
Rejection Near $82,000 CME Gap Raises Caution
Mason points to the $82,000 area—home to a Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures “gap”—as the latest sign of fragility. Bitcoin reached that region in early May, filled the gap, and was rejected multiple times between May 6 and May 11. In the analyst’s view, that sequence resembled a textbook bull trap before the next leg lower.
CME gaps occur when Bitcoin futures on the CME open at a different price from the prior session’s close, often due to weekend spot market moves while the futures market is closed. Traders frequently watch these areas for potential magnet effects and reactions.
Bearish Path: $70,000, $60,000, Then Possibly $50,000
If the channel’s lower trendline breaks, Mason’s roadmap anticipates a shift from a controlled recovery to a downside sequence. The next levels highlighted are around $70,000, followed by a deeper move toward $60,000. A more severe extension projects a possible drop to roughly $50,000 by early July if selling accelerates.
What Would Invalidate The Bearish Case
To revive odds of a run toward $100,000, Bitcoin would likely need to clear and hold above the resistance cluster near $82,000, regain momentum, and reclaim the 200-day moving average in the same region. Sustained strength above those levels would signal improving confidence and liquidity, undercutting the “distribution” narrative.
For context, prediction market Kalshi currently assigns about a 32% probability that Bitcoin will trade above $100,000 before January 2027, reflecting tempered expectations for a six-figure breakout in the near term.