Ethereum fell below $1,800 this week as broader crypto sentiment turned risk-off, with the token’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to its lowest reading since trading began in 2015. The move has sharpened focus on whether ETH is approaching a cyclical bottom or facing deeper downside before any recovery takes hold.
Monthly RSI Slips to Record Low
The monthly RSI on ETH/USD has fallen to roughly 40—its lowest monthly reading since Ethereum’s launch—according to TradingView data. RSI is a momentum oscillator; lower readings indicate weakening momentum and, at extremes, have historically coincided with periods near market turning points. Prior deep monthly RSI resets in 2020 and 2022 preceded substantial rebounds in ETH, though such signals do not guarantee similar outcomes.
Analysts note that this year’s RSI downdraft is more pronounced than those earlier resets, underscoring the severity of the current drawdown. Whether this marks capitulation or an interim waypoint remains uncertain and will depend on follow-through in price and market breadth.
Price Action and Market Context
ETH has endured a volatile nine months since peaking near $4,950 in August 2025. The latest decline accelerated in June, with prices breaking below $1,800 and touching an intraday low around $1,536 over the past 24 hours—its weakest level so far in 2026. As of publication, Ethereum was trading near $1,612, placing immediate focus on whether buyers can defend the $1,600 area.
The pullback comes amid a wider market downturn, with major cryptocurrencies sliding as risk appetite faded. Bitcoin briefly retreated to the upper-$50,000s this week, adding to cross-market pressure on altcoins.
ETF Flows Turn Mixed After Brief Relief
Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds ended a 17-day stretch of net outflows on June 4, recording approximately $19 million in net inflows. That respite was short-lived, however, as the next session flipped back to an estimated $5.97 million in net outflows. The whipsaw in flows suggests institutional demand remains tentative while prices search for a durable base.
Cycle Framing and Key Levels to Watch
Some market technicians continue to view ETH’s structure through a multi-year cycle lens, noting the sequence from the 2017 top to the 2021 top and subsequent advances. While some projections point to the possibility of a new cycle high later in 2026–2027, such scenarios are speculative and highly path-dependent.
In the near term, the $1,600 zone is a key support area for bulls to defend. On the momentum side, the historically depressed monthly RSI places ETH in a zone that has previously aligned with longer-term bottoms, but confirmation will require evidence of sustained accumulation, improved market breadth, and steadier ETF inflows.