Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE extended its recent outperformance with a 23% weekly gain as activity on the decentralized exchange climbed amid rising tensions in Iran. While momentum remains elevated, a widely followed technical indicator now signals a potential short-term pullback, even as new valuation work from research firm DCo outlines upside scenarios for the token under different market-capture assumptions.
Technical Signal Flags Near-Term Risk
Market analyst Ali Martinez noted that Hyperliquid (HYPE) flashed a TD Sequential buy signal on March 8, followed by a 28.23% advance from roughly $30 to a high near $38.53. As of March 13, the same indicator — a trend-exhaustion tool developed by Tom DeMark — has turned to a sell signal, suggesting increasing selling pressure could drive a retracement toward $34.
HYPE recently traded around $36.37, down about 2.5% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. A move to $34 would represent an additional decline of approximately 6.5%. Martinez suggested such weakness could present a tactical entry point if the broader uptrend resumes, though technical signals do not guarantee future performance.
DCo Models HIP-3 Scenarios and Implied Valuations
In a separate analysis, research firm DCo published a valuation framework for HYPE tied to the potential impact of Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 protocol. The firm modeled four outcomes based on capturing portions of a $1.74 trillion daily Total Addressable Market (TAM), using a three-year discounted cash flow (DCF) approach. The ramp assumes partial TAM capture of 20% in Year 1 (2026), 50% in Year 2 (2027), and 100% in Year 3 (2028).
- Bear case (0.01% capture): HIP-3 fees of about $32 million at full ramp; baseline revenue of $1.35 billion; enterprise value (EV) near $18 billion; implied HYPE price around $60.
- Base case (0.10% capture): Year 3 HIP-3 revenue near $322 million; total revenue about $1.7 billion; EV around $22 billion; implied price roughly $72.
- Bull case (0.50% capture): Year 3 HIP-3 fees about $1.6 billion; total revenue near $3.0 billion; EV around $38 billion; implied price about $124; fully diluted valuation (FDV) near $124 billion.
- Most optimistic (1.00% capture): Total Year 3 revenue around $4.6 billion; EV about $59 billion; implied HYPE price near $190.
DCo added that, using a default 20% discount rate and a 20x multiple, HYPE’s recent price near $37 sits below even the firm’s bear-case implied value of $60. The researchers argue the market may be underestimating potential contributions from HIP-3 alongside the core exchange business. All projections are model-based and subject to execution, market-share, and market-structure risks.
Market Context
Hyperliquid is a decentralized exchange whose activity and token performance have risen in recent weeks, outpacing many large-cap crypto assets. The platform’s growing usage — set against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty — and the debate over HIP-3’s revenue potential have placed HYPE under closer scrutiny from traders and analysts.