JPMorgan analysts expect the U.S. “Clarity Act,” a comprehensive bill to establish formal rules for digital assets, to pass by mid-2026, a move they say could reshape crypto regulation and catalyze institutional participation. The legislation remains under negotiation, with disputes over stablecoin yields and an ethics clause for senior officials still unresolved.
What the Clarity Act Would Do
The Clarity Act is designed to create a unified framework for how crypto assets are classified, issued, and supervised in the United States. It seeks to clarify which agencies have authority over different types of tokens and trading activities, addressing years of uncertainty that has left companies navigating inconsistent interpretations and “regulation by enforcement.”
According to a JPMorgan research note led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bill’s passage could provide the regulatory certainty institutions have been waiting for, supporting tokenization of real-world assets and broader institutional adoption.
Two Sticking Points: Stablecoin Yields and an Ethics Clause
Progress has been slowed by two core disputes:
- Stablecoin yields: Crypto firms want stablecoin holders to be able to earn rewards on their balances, similar to interest on deposits. Banks have pushed back, arguing such returns could siphon deposits from traditional institutions and pose risks to the banking system.
- Ethics provision: Democratic lawmakers have advocated for a clause barring senior government officials—including the U.S. president and immediate family—from holding financial interests in crypto projects. The measure has been widely interpreted as a reference to Donald Trump, who has been linked to various crypto ventures.
Market Impact: A Potential H2 2026 Catalyst
JPMorgan’s team believes the bill’s approval could act as a meaningful catalyst for the crypto market in the second half of 2026, even as current sentiment remains subdued. The analysts argue that clear rules tend to unlock sidelined institutional capital by reducing legal and compliance uncertainty. Industry reports, including a summary shared by Wu Blockchain on March 2, echo that view.
However, the scope and timing of the final legislation remain uncertain, and any compromise on contested provisions—particularly around stablecoin products—will shape its impact.
Timeline and Next Steps
White House meetings have been held to bridge differences, but a floated March 1 target for progress passed without an announcement. Negotiations are ongoing, and JPMorgan estimates a mid-year path to passage if lawmakers resolve the outstanding issues.
Until then, the sector remains in a holding pattern, with market participants watching for signs of a breakthrough on stablecoin policy and the ethics clause that could define the final contours of U.S. crypto oversight.