Bitcoin has yet to trigger the three end-of-bear-market signals that have historically preceded trend reversals, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo. The analyst says the asset remains well below the cost basis of recent buyers, with short-term holder metrics still moving in a bearish direction.
The Three Signals Woo Tracks
- Price reclaims the short-term holder (STH) cost basis: This level represents the average break-even price for investors who acquired BTC within the past 155 days. Historically, sustained moves back above this line have marked the end of bear markets.
- Fresh buying follows the reclaim: Once price crosses above the STH cost basis, Woo observes an uptick in new demand, reinforcing the shift in market structure.
- STH cost basis trend reverses higher: During bear markets, the STH cost basis typically trends down as coins change hands at lower prices. A lasting transition out of a bear phase coincides with this metric turning upward as buyers pay progressively higher prices.
Where Bitcoin Stands Now
Woo notes that Bitcoin remains below the STH cost basis, a pattern also seen during previous bear markets when new entrants were underwater for extended periods. According to his chart, BTC fell beneath the STH cost basis amid the bearish shift in Q4 2025 and has stayed there since, with the gap widening over time.
The analyst estimates the current STH cost basis at around $81,000. With Bitcoin trading near $69,500, recent buyers are sitting on an unrealized loss of roughly 14%. Historically, the end of bear markets has aligned with price reclaiming this level, followed by renewed inflows and an upward turn in the STH cost basis.
Analyst Commentary
Responding to a question about timing, Woo wrote on X: “Given price is not even close to the cost basis of recent investors, and that cost basis is dropping each day… there’s no point in buying until a cross becomes imminent. Bear markets are about patience.”
Price Snapshot
After closing last week below $67,000, Bitcoin recovered to approximately $69,500 to start the new week. Whether the market can reclaim the STH cost basis and confirm Woo’s first signal remains a key metric to watch.