Bitcoin has historically formed cycle lows between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV pricing bands, according to on-chain analyst Ali Martinez. In the current cycle, the market has not fallen below the 1.0 band, keeping the average holder in unrealized profit even after recent pullbacks.
What the MVRV Ratio Indicates
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization—reflecting current investor valuations—to its realized capitalization, a proxy for the total capital actually invested. An MVRV reading above 1.0 indicates the average holder sits on unrealized gains, while a value below 1.0 suggests network-wide unrealized losses.
As profits expand, profit-taking pressure typically increases, raising the risk of market tops. Conversely, when losses dominate, selling tends to exhaust, historically aligning with market bottoms. Leveraging these dynamics, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode created MVRV Pricing Bands, which map Bitcoin price levels to key MVRV thresholds.
Historical Bottom Zone: 1.0–0.8 Bands
“Over the past decade, Bitcoin has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands,” Martinez said in a recent post on X. At present, those bands correspond to roughly $54,000 (1.0) and $43,000 (0.8), respectively. These levels have repeatedly marked areas where network-wide selling pressure abates and accumulation resumes.
Current Cycle Positioning
Despite recent downside, Bitcoin has held above the 1.0 MVRV band this cycle, implying the average investor remains in unrealized profit. On the upside, BTC has traded below the 2.4 and 3.2 MVRV bands—near approximately $130,000 and $174,000—levels where profit-realization risk historically becomes significant. Martinez noted that, unlike prior cycles, Bitcoin has not breached the 3.2 band at any point this time.
It remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will retest the historical bottoming zone between the 1.0 and 0.8 bands or establish a higher low above it, diverging from the prior cycle pattern.
Market Snapshot
As of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $73,000, up more than 6% over the past week.