Bitcoin is holding within a wide range between $60,000 and $73,000 as on-chain data points to a phase of hesitation rather than conviction. Analysis from CryptoQuant suggests the market has entered what it calls “the most frustrating phase in the cycle,” with several indicators flashing signs of consolidation and waning appetite to buy aggressively.
On-chain Metrics Signal Caution
CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV highlights three measures that indicate a psychologically challenging period for participants:
- Apparent Demand: After an initial post-sell-off rebound that hinted at opportunistic dip-buying, the metric quickly fell back into negative territory, underscoring a lack of sustained spot demand.
- Bull Market Cycle Indicator: The gauge currently aligns with conditions typically associated with bear-market-style consolidation, reinforcing the view that the market remains cautious.
- Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): The metric has slipped below 1, indicating some long-term holders are realizing losses. Historically, such behavior can emerge in late-stage bear phases when prolonged uncertainty pressures even steadfast holders.
MorenoDV adds that shifting behavior across cohorts can pull down realized prices as short-term holders crystallize losses or rotate into longer-term holding profiles, further reflecting the market’s tentative stance.
24/7 Market Structure Stands Out Amid Geopolitical Stress
Despite geopolitical tensions — including the recent U.S.–Israeli strike on Iran — Bitcoin has shown resilience, with crypto-exposed equities also benefiting from digital assets’ around-the-clock trading. “Crypto’s 24/7 structure is increasingly an edge for the asset class,” Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told Fortune. “When the Iran conflict escalated over the weekend, crypto-native markets were the only venue open for global risk trading, a structural advantage that traditional markets cannot replicate.”
Bitcoin also rose roughly 4% after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the conflict could be winding down, saying, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” and that Iran has “nothing left in a military sense.”
Key Levels: $72,000–$73,000 in Focus
As of press time, Bitcoin is attempting to consolidate near $70,000 while eyeing a break above the $72,000–$73,000 resistance area, a zone that capped upside attempts last week. According to Selby, a sustained close above this band, accompanied by strong volume, would help transition the narrative from a short-covering rally to a bona fide momentum recovery.
Until then, on-chain signals imply a market still searching for conviction, with range-bound trading likely to persist as participants wait for a clear catalyst.