Bitcoin may be approaching a potential bottoming zone between two long-watched on-chain metrics, according to analyst Willy Woo. Historical cycles have seen bear market lows form when the price traded between Bitcoin’s Realized Price and the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) level.
Key On-Chain Models: Realized Price and CVDD
The Realized Price estimates the average cost basis of all circulating BTC by valuing each coin at the price it last moved on-chain. When spot price is above this level, the market in aggregate holds net unrealized profit; when below, unrealized losses dominate.
The CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed), developed by Woo, builds on the Coin Days Destroyed concept. A “coin day” accrues for each BTC held for one day; when coins move, their accumulated coin days are “destroyed.” CVDD attaches a USD value to these destroyed coin days at the time they are spent, cumulatively sums them, and normalizes by the market’s age. In prior cycles, CVDD has behaved as a lower bound during deep drawdowns, with price not breaking below it.
What the Metrics Suggest Now
Woo noted that Bitcoin’s Realized Price has been declining in recent weeks, indicating a lower average cost basis across holders and implying some net capital outflow. After trending down since November, the Realized Price sits near $54,200. Bitcoin has not yet retested this level during the latest pullback.
The CVDD currently stands around $45,500. If past patterns hold, Woo suggested that a potential bottom could emerge somewhere between the Realized Price (~$54,200) and the CVDD (~$45,500), a range that historically encompassed bear market lows.
Caveats and Market Context
Woo cautioned that these models are based on limited historical data. “Models use past behaviour… there’s only been 4 prior bear markets and they have been inside a secular bull market in risk equities. If that foundation collapses, we will be in uncharted territory (deeper bear),” he wrote.
Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin’s recovery attempt faded again, with the price slipping to about $67,200 at the time of writing.