Markets may be starting to price in the risk that future quantum computers could compromise Bitcoin’s cryptography, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo. He argues the shift could challenge assumptions about roughly 4 million “lost” BTC and put Bitcoin’s long-running valuation uptrend versus gold under pressure.
Quantum computing risk comes into focus
Woo contends that investors are increasingly factoring in the possibility that large-scale quantum computing could break the elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA) used to secure Bitcoin transactions. In a theoretical quantum “break,” attackers could derive private keys from exposed public keys, threatening funds in vulnerable addresses.
While fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of such attacks do not yet exist, the debate has intensified as research advances. Bitcoin developers and security researchers have explored potential mitigations, including migrating to quantum-resistant signature schemes via protocol upgrades if needed.
Implications for “lost” coins and address security
Industry estimates often place the number of potentially lost bitcoins in the 3–4 million range, largely attributed to forgotten keys, early wallet mishaps, and long-dormant holdings. Woo’s warning centers on the subset of coins whose public keys are already exposed on-chain—such as some early-era outputs or reused addresses—which could be more vulnerable in a quantum scenario.
The actual risk profile varies by address type and spending history. Coins that have never revealed their public keys are generally considered less exposed until they are spent, while proactive network-wide measures could further mitigate risks before any real-world quantum threat materializes.
Bitcoin’s edge over gold questioned
Woo also suggests the market’s reassessment of quantum risk may be weighing on Bitcoin’s multi-year outperformance against gold. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is a common yardstick for comparing the assets’ relative valuations; a sustained shift in sentiment around long-term security could influence that relationship.
For now, the timeline and feasibility of practical quantum attacks remain uncertain. However, Woo’s comments highlight a growing focus among investors and developers on ensuring Bitcoin’s cryptography can withstand next-generation computing advances.