Bitcoin’s slide toward the $60,000 area was a natural reset rather than a sign of manipulation, according to new analysis from market research firm BitQuant. The firm argues the decline stemmed from an “early” cycle peak that disrupted the market’s structural progression, preventing a stronger base from forming before the next leg higher.
Early Peak Undermined Bitcoin’s Market Structure
In a detailed post on X, BitQuant said it expected Bitcoin to top near $145,000, but the market stalled after exceeding $126,000 in October 2025. Falling short of the projected peak led to what the firm described as a structural failure: the market did not complete a typical distribution phase and subsequent orderly correction, which would have allowed consolidation before further gains.
In a “clean” scenario, BitQuant said Bitcoin would have:
- Rallied to around $145,000
- Entered distribution at that level
- Corrected by roughly 25%–30%
- Built a stronger base for the next expansion
Instead, the premature top left the market without sufficient support, setting up the conditions for a deeper pullback toward the $60,000–$62,000 region.
Liquidations and Exchange Glitch Added Volatility
BitQuant noted that a broad liquidation event on October 10 exacerbated the fragility, with a technical issue at Binance—one of the largest global crypto exchanges—coinciding with a steep intraday drop from approximately $120,000 to $105,000. While some traders interpreted the move as manipulation, BitQuant characterized such incidents as part of normal market dynamics in crypto and said the glitch and liquidations alone did not justify the full extent of the subsequent downside.
Outlook: New Structure Within the Same Cycle
Despite highlighting the structural flaws that led to the retracement, BitQuant said Bitcoin has since established a fresh setup following its move toward $60,000. The firm views the next advance as a continuation of the cycle that began around $16,000, not the start of a new one. How market participants interpret the upcoming move—either as a renewed cycle or an ongoing phase—could influence sentiment and positioning in the months ahead.
After briefly probing the low-$60,000s, Bitcoin has recovered and was trading back above $67,000 at the time of writing.