XRP rebounded midweek as it retested a long-term ascending support trendline that has historically preceded its strongest rallies. The move followed a 62% drawdown that bottomed near $1.10 on February 6. On Wednesday, XRP rose roughly 6% while Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000, lifting sentiment across crypto markets.
Historic Trendline Back in Focus
Market analyst Sam Daodu noted Wednesday that XRP is testing the same rising trendline that aligned with two of the asset’s most substantial advances: a surge of more than 60,000% in 2017 and a 630% rally in 2024. He added that a sustained break below approximately $1.10 would mark the first failure of this channel since 2015 and could open the door to deeper downside.
ETF Flows, Institutional Positioning, and Supply
Daodu highlighted that this retest is occurring with a spot XRP exchange-traded fund infrastructure now in place. Since launching in November 2025, U.S. spot XRP ETFs have attracted an estimated $1.24 billion in cumulative inflows over four consecutive positive months, with roughly 797 million XRP held in ETF custody, according to the analyst’s compilation of flow data.
On-chain activity during the recent dip also showed accumulation: institutional wallets added about 170 million XRP, Daodu said. Separately, Ripple re-locked 700 million XRP into escrow on March 1, in line with its standard monthly release cycle, which limits new supply entering the market.
Seasonality may add a tailwind. Over the past 12 years, XRP has posted an average March return of 18%, making it historically the strongest month of the first quarter, according to Daodu’s analysis.
Key Technical Levels
Support: The $1.27 area is the first support to watch, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and acting as a floor during the latest correction. The long-term ascending trendline sits near $1.10–$1.11; a decisive breakdown below $1.10 could expose $0.85–$1.00.
Resistance: Immediate resistance appears at $1.47 (Fibonacci), followed by the $1.50 neckline of a potential double-bottom structure. A sustained close above $1.50 would confirm that pattern and imply follow-through toward $1.68–$1.70. On-chain data shows about 1.85 billion XRP transacted between $1.76 and $1.80, a zone where supply from breakeven sellers could create resistance. The largest supply cluster is estimated at $2.40–$2.60; a weekly close above that range would invalidate the broader descending structure and strengthen the case for a trend reversal.
Outlook
Combining the historical strength in March, recent capitulation signals, and constrained net supply, Daodu suggests XRP could potentially advance into the $2.50–$4.00 range by late 2026. Whether that scenario unfolds will depend on the integrity of the long-term trendline, the persistence of ETF demand, and how price reacts at key supply zones.