Author: api-bot

The crypto market closed November on the back foot, with Bitcoin sliding roughly 20% from recent highs as forced liquidations accelerated and stablecoin capitalization declined by an estimated $2 billion. A mix of macro headwinds, thinning liquidity and leveraged positioning drove sharp intraday swings across major assets.

Liquidations surge as volatility returns

Derivatives-driven moves dominated trading through November, culminating in multiple liquidation waves that intensified price declines.

• Analysts described parts of the sell-off as a “2-sigma long liquidation event,” wiping out speculative long positions and exacerbating downside momentum.
• Market trackers recorded late-month totals approaching $920 million in liquidations, with several 24-hour windows ranging from about $143 million to $184 million across major exchanges.
• A prior shock on October 10, 2025 — an 18.26% one-day drop in Bitcoin — remained a key reference point for risk management, after more than $19 billion in open interest evaporated in 24 hours.

Intraday lows saw Bitcoin trade near $82,000 at one point, while technical signals turned cautious. Several analysts cited a 200-day moving average “death cross” and persistent bearish momentum, though some noted a hidden bullish divergence on higher timeframes that could imply easing selling pressure if supported by improving flows.

Institutional flows, derivatives structure and positioning

The unwind extended into institutional channels. Exchange-traded funds tied to Bitcoin posted net outflows during the month, with reported episodes of more than $1.4 billion in redemptions and cumulative multi-week outflows nearing $3.8 billion. On-chain data also showed large holders moving tens of thousands of BTC out of long-term storage, signaling profit-taking and adding to short-term supply.

Derivatives structure amplified moves. Extreme leverage on some platforms contributed to cascade effects, with large single-position losses triggering follow-on liquidations and widening price gaps. The break of October’s parabolic advance introduced new resistance overhead, with analysts highlighting a cluster in the $98,000–$102,000 area that may cap rebounds until liquidity rebuilds.

Stablecoins under scrutiny

Stablecoin market capitalization contracted by about $2 billion over the month amid broader risk reduction. The Financial Stability Board reiterated that gaps remain in global stablecoin oversight, citing inconsistent reserve and redemption standards across jurisdictions, particularly problematic during thin weekend liquidity.

Against that backdrop, Tether’s leadership publicly pushed back on renewed skepticism around USDt, criticizing ratings commentary and social media narratives they argued were spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt. At the same time, payments initiatives continued: Visa expanded a partnership with infrastructure provider Aquanow to support stablecoin settlement across the CEMEA region, underscoring steady progress in real-world payment pilots.

Macro drivers and near-term outlook

Bitcoin’s correlation profile continued to resemble high-growth technology equities, leaving it sensitive to interest rate expectations and liquidity conditions. Analysts noted that shifting odds around central bank policy — including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December 10 meeting — influenced risk appetite through November. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell into “deep fear,” consistent with rising realized losses and a preference for safer assets.

Even so, pockets of resilience emerged late in the month. Ethereum reclaimed the $2,900 level at one point, while XRP rallied double digits intraweek on improving liquidity forecasts. Whether these bounces can build depends on the path of institutional flows, the depth of order books after the recent deleveraging, and clearer policy signals into year-end.

By the numbers

• Bitcoin: down roughly 20% from recent highs during November; intraday lows near $82,000.
• Liquidations: approximately $920 million during late-month turmoil; multiple 24-hour windows in the $143–$184 million range, per market trackers including Coinglass.
• ETFs: episodes of net outflows exceeding $1.4 billion in November; multi-week outflows nearing $3.8 billion reported.
• Stablecoins: market cap down about $2 billion month over month amid risk reduction and regulatory scrutiny.

Bottom line: November’s drawdown exposed lingering leverage and liquidity fragilities. With macro policy decisions looming and risk indicators still fragile, markets are watching for stabilization in ETF flows, improved order book depth, and clearer regulatory footing for stablecoins to gauge prospects for a sustained recovery.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino condemned S&P Global Ratings’ downgrade of USDT’s ability to hold its U.S. dollar peg, arguing the decision misrepresents the stablecoin’s reserve quality and the company’s financial position. The rating agency cut USDT to the lowest level on its stablecoin stability scale, citing rising exposure to higher-risk assets and persistent gaps in disclosure.

S&P’s downgrade and rationale

S&P Global Ratings reduced its assessment of USDT, the world’s largest stablecoin by circulation, pointing to increased allocations to Bitcoin and gold and ongoing disclosure deficiencies. The agency warned that the stablecoin could face stress if Bitcoin prices were to sharply decline.

The move follows a period in which Tether’s public attestations have shown shifts in its reserve composition, including fewer U.S. Treasuries and greater exposure to Bitcoin and gold.

Tether’s response and reserve strategy

Ardoino rejected S&P’s assessment, portraying it as rooted in traditional finance’s misunderstanding of Tether’s model. He characterized the agency as a “propaganda machine” and said the conventional financial system is “broken,” while emphasizing Tether’s profitability and liquidity.

• Tether’s latest attestations indicate increased holdings of Bitcoin and gold alongside a reduction in Treasuries.
• Since mid-2024, the company behind roughly $100 billion in circulating USDT has invested more than $300 million in gold royalty equities, including significant stakes in Elemental Altus Royalties, Versamet Royalties, and Metalla Royalty & Streaming.

Tether’s growing exposure to alternative assets has been a focal point for critics, reviving long-running industry debates over the stability and transparency of USDT reserves—often referred to as “Tether FUD” in crypto circles.

Market context and outside commentary

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned that Tether could face balance-sheet insolvency if the value of its Bitcoin and gold holdings drops by 30%, underscoring market concerns around asset volatility. Tether disputes that such scenarios threaten USDT’s peg, citing strong financials and liquidity management.

USDT plays a central role in global crypto markets, including in emerging economies where access to U.S. dollars can be limited. Any perceived change in its stability can have broad implications for crypto trading and liquidity.

Uruguay operations paused amid dispute

Separately, Tether has paused its Uruguay operations. A company representative confirmed the halt and reiterated long-term regional interest. Local media previously reported that Tether was exiting Bitcoin mining activities in the country following a $4.8 million debt dispute with the state-owned utility UTE. Reports also indicated layoffs after negotiations failed; Tether had invested over $100 million and committed an additional $50 million to infrastructure in Uruguay before winding down operations.

Leadership note

Ardoino, formerly Tether’s chief technology officer, was promoted to CEO in October 2023 and has led the company since December 2023, succeeding Jean-Louis van der Velde.

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become the asset manager’s largest revenue source, according to a senior company executive, underscoring the scale and pace of institutional demand for bitcoin exposure via regulated fund structures.

BlackRock says Bitcoin ETFs now its top revenue driver

Speaking at the Blockchain Conference 2025 in São Paulo on Friday, November 28, Cristiano Castro, BlackRock’s director of business development in Brazil, said the firm’s Bitcoin ETFs now generate more revenue than any other product line. The shift is notable given BlackRock’s breadth—more than 1,400 ETFs globally—and its position as the world’s largest asset manager, with over $13.4 trillion in assets under management.

Castro said the Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed legacy products that have been producing revenue for over two decades. Industry-wide, assets in U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have grown rapidly, with allocations approaching $100 billion, according to market estimates.

IBIT’s rapid ascent

BlackRock’s flagship iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has been cited by industry trackers as one of the fastest-growing ETFs on record, even amid recent price volatility. The fund has led category trading activity and, by some estimates, now holds more than 3% of bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Heavy trading meets shifting flows

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $40 billion in trading volume last week, with IBIT leading activity, according to industry data. Despite the elevated turnover, flows have been volatile:

• IBIT posted approximately $2.2 billion in net outflows month-to-date as of Monday, according to FactSet.
• Across the broader U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF cohort, investors withdrew about $3.5 billion so far in November, nearing the previous monthly outflow record of $3.6 billion set in February, Bloomberg data show.

Why it matters

The revenue milestone highlights how rapidly crypto-linked ETFs have scaled within mainstream portfolios and fee pools. While net flows can swing with market conditions, the combination of sizable assets, sustained trading volumes, and management fees has made Bitcoin ETFs a meaningful line of business for BlackRock.

U.S.-listed spot crypto ETFs closed November with their worst monthly withdrawals on record, even as a late-week rebound delivered modest net inflows and hinted at stabilizing demand. Bitcoin products shed roughly $3.8 billion for the month, while cumulative net inflows since launch remain positive at about $57.71 billion. Ethereum ETFs showed signs of recovery after weeks of mild outflows, and spot Solana funds snapped a brief setback with renewed buying into Friday.

Record November Outflows, Then a Late-Week Turn

Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended November with approximately $3.8 billion in net redemptions, setting a new monthly record for outflows as institutions trimmed risk and locked in year-end profits. Despite the drawdown, providers still show cumulative net inflows of about $57.71 billion since launch, underscoring the longer-term bid that has supported the market this cycle.

Flows turned tentatively positive into month-end. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted roughly $70 million in net inflows for the week, snapping a four-week run of outflows. According to data cited by CryptoniteUae, one session recorded $129 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs and $78 million into Ethereum ETFs—over $207 million in a single day—marking the first combined positive week for the pair in weeks.

Ethereum and Solana ETF Flows Diverge

Ethereum-based ETFs have seen mild outflows in recent weeks as investors reduced ETH exposure, but activity has begun to improve. Select sessions showed net inflows exceeding $60 million, contributing to the broader weekly turnaround alongside Bitcoin funds.

Spot Solana ETFs broke a 21-day inflow streak with about $8.1 million in net outflows on Wednesday, then logged approximately $5.4 million in net inflows on Friday. Prior to the setback, demand for SOL exposure had been consistent. By issuer, estimated cumulative flows since launch include roughly $528 million for Bitwise’s BSOL, about $30 million for Fidelity’s FSOL, and around $8 million for VanEck’s VSOL, with Grayscale near $74 million; a recent outflow from a 21Shares product turned the group’s daily tally negative before Friday’s modest rebound.

Institutions Rebalance as Macro Uncertainty Persists

November’s outflows were driven by profit-taking, year-end rebalancing, and ongoing interest-rate uncertainty. Several large asset managers appear to have paused net accumulation, with one estimate suggesting roughly $1 billion in fresh inflows each week would be needed to lift BTC-USD by about 4%—a pace not yet reflected in recent data. Even so, on-chain and custody activity points to continued institutional engagement: BlackRock transferred approximately $422 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum to Coinbase Prime in late November, a move market participants interpreted as ETF liquidity management.

ETP flows remain a real-time gauge of institutional and adviser appetite. A four-week outflow streak signaled a meaningful cooling of risk appetite in November, even as long-term positioning—evidenced by cumulative inflows and ongoing whale accumulation—helped limit downside into month-end.

Key Numbers

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs: about $3.8 billion in November net outflows; roughly $57.71 billion cumulative net inflows since launch.
• Weekly flows: roughly $70 million net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs, breaking a four-week outflow run.
• Single-day snapshot (per CryptoniteUae): $129 million into Bitcoin ETFs; $78 million into Ethereum ETFs; $207 million combined.
• Solana ETFs: approximately $8.1 million out on Wednesday; about $5.4 million in on Friday; steady cumulative interest by leading issuers.

Bitcoin held steady above $91,000 on Friday, extending a Thanksgiving-week rebound as traders increased wagers on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in December. Prices moved within a tight range through the shortened U.S. session, reflecting improving risk sentiment tied to softer policy expectations.

Price action

Major data providers showed Bitcoin trading close to $91,000 after the U.S. equity market’s early close at 1 p.m. ET on Friday, with intraday moves largely contained between the low $90,000s and just under $93,000. Earlier in the day, the cryptocurrency briefly reclaimed the $93,000 level before easing toward the low $92,000s.

Rate-cut expectations intensify

Odds of a December policy move continued to firm. As of Friday, CME’s FedWatch Tool indicated an implied 84.9% probability of a rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for December 9–10, 2025. Analysts at JPMorgan have also raised the likelihood of a cut, adding to the tailwind for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Lower interest rates typically support speculative assets by reducing funding costs and improving liquidity conditions, a dynamic that has historically benefited Bitcoin during easing cycles.

Key factors to watch

• Spot Bitcoin ETF flows and net inflows/outflows as a gauge of institutional demand.
• Derivatives positioning, including funding rates and open interest, for signs of sustained momentum.
• Technical levels, with traders highlighting resistance in the $92,000–$95,000 zone as the next hurdle.
• Upcoming U.S. macro data and Fed communications ahead of the December FOMC meeting.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is on track for its worst month of outflows since launch, with approximately $2.3–$2.35 billion withdrawn in November 2025, according to fund flow estimates. The world’s largest spot bitcoin ETF has seen sustained redemptions amid heightened market volatility, even as late-month trading produced a mix of inflows and outflows.

Record monthly redemptions for IBIT

IBIT’s November withdrawals are the largest on record for the fund since it began trading in January 2024. Multiple trackers show IBIT’s net outflows topping $2.2 billion for the month and approaching roughly $2.35 billion as the period draws to a close. The heaviest selling arrived mid-month, including one session with an estimated $523 million in redemptions.

The selling pressure was not isolated to a single issuer. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs collectively saw more than $3 billion in redemptions in November, reflecting broader de-risking and profit-taking by investors following sharp swings in bitcoin’s price.

Late-month flows turn mixed

Daily flows around the U.S. Thanksgiving week highlighted two-way demand:

• Nov. 24: roughly $149–$151 million in outflows
• Nov. 25: approximately $83 million in inflows
• Nov. 28: about $114 million in net inflows
• Later in the week: roughly $113.7 million in outflows, leaving IBIT with an estimated $137 million net weekly outflow despite midweek inflows

Across the two sessions of Nov. 24–25, IBIT posted a net outflow of more than $66 million. While inflows resumed on select days, they were not sufficient to offset the month’s cumulative redemptions.

Analysts: outflows are small versus AUM; short interest declines

Despite the headline figure, analysts noted November’s redemptions equate to less than 3% of IBIT’s total assets. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas emphasized that the bulk of investors remained invested through the pullback, and highlighted a collapse in short interest as traders who typically short into strength covered positions during the downturn.

Market backdrop and investor positioning

November’s ETF outflows arrived alongside a sharp drawdown in bitcoin, with several issuers citing profit-taking and macro uncertainty as drivers of redemptions. On-chain analytics firm Arkham said in an X post that the combined unrealized profit for IBIT and ETHA holders swung from nearly $40 billion at a peak on Oct. 7 to about $630 million recently, underscoring how quickly paper gains were erased.

While IBIT recorded its first sustained month of net outflows since launch, intermittent late-month inflows suggest continued two-way interest. Absent a significant reversal on the final trading days, November 2025 will stand as IBIT’s largest monthly outflow since inception.

Apple Pay Integration Expands Bitcoin Buying Options as Market Tests Mid-$80K Support

Apple Pay support is appearing on more cryptocurrency platforms, streamlining retail access to Bitcoin purchases. The broadened payment options arrive as Bitcoin trades in the mid-$80,000s following a sharp pullback, with analysts watching key technical levels for confirmation of the next trend.

Retail On-Ramps Broaden With Apple Pay and Local Payment Rails

Several crypto services have added consumer-friendly payment methods alongside traditional bank transfers. For example, Cryptorino allows users to purchase crypto with Apple Pay, Google Pay, Visa, or Mastercard, subject to standard know-your-customer verification. Wallet-to-wallet deposits on such platforms are typically processed quickly.

Exchanges are also expanding fiat gateways. Bitget, for instance, supports deposits via Advcash, SEPA, Faster Payments, and Brazil’s PIX to fund fiat balances before converting to Bitcoin through its cash conversion tool.

How the New Payment Flows Work

• Users can top up balances via supported fiat channels, then place Bitcoin buy orders within the platform’s “Buy Crypto” or similar modules.
• Apple Pay and other card-based options may require identity verification and are subject to regional availability and compliance rules.
• Settlement speeds vary by provider and method; many wallet-to-wallet transfers clear quickly, while bank transfers can take longer depending on the payment rail.

Market Snapshot: Key Levels and Mixed Signals

Bitcoin has retreated from recent highs into the low $80,000s and was trading around $86,000 on Monday morning. CoinSwitch’s market desk noted a roughly 2% bounce fueled by “buying the dip,” but said a move above $94,000 would be needed to confirm a sustained uptrend.

After a steep November drawdown, several analysts say Bitcoin faces critical support in the $84,000–$86,000 zone. Some market watchers, including Crypto Patel and The Boss, highlighted that Bitcoin has regained important support areas and closed a fair value gap between $81,000 and $85,000, which they view as constructive for a potential continuation. Others remain cautious: Tallbacken Capital Advisors CEO Michael Purves warned that a bearish technical signal—seen previously in several instances—could imply further downside. Scenarios involving a drop toward $70,000 have not been ruled out.

Broader Context and Outlook

The pullback comes as U.S. equities hover near all-time highs, a divergence that some crypto commentators say bears watching. Institutional flows and whale accumulation continue to be cited by analysts as signs of underlying cycle resilience, though near-term direction hinges on whether Bitcoin can hold mid-$80,000 support and reclaim higher resistance levels.

With easier retail on-ramps via Apple Pay and expanded fiat gateways, market access is broadening. Whether that translates into sustained buying depends on macro conditions, liquidity, and how price behaves around the current support band.

Stablecoin yields remain subdued as crypto market liquidity shows mixed signals, with Bitcoin holding near recent highs and Solana attracting net inflows despite broad ETF redemptions.

Stablecoin yields point to cautious risk appetite

On-chain analytics firm Santiment said stablecoin yields across major lending protocols are “a gauge of market health” and are currently low, averaging roughly 3.9%–4.5%. The firm noted that surging yields typically coincide with increased leverage and risk-taking, while depressed rates suggest more muted demand for borrow-based positioning.

While low yields alone do not guarantee the start of a new bull phase, Santiment said similar setups in prior cycles have sometimes preceded at least temporary reversals. Analysts have also highlighted a historical pattern in which rising stablecoin supply preceded Bitcoin upside during both the 2021 bull market and the 2024–2025 recovery.

Liquidity shifts: exchange reserves and volumes

Liquidity dynamics remain uneven. CryptoQuant reported this week that stablecoin reserves on Binance have “skyrocketed,” contrasting with declining Bitcoin and Ether reserves on the exchange. Elevated stablecoin balances can indicate dry powder waiting on the sidelines, but outflows of BTC and ETH from exchange wallets often reflect reduced immediate selling supply or shifts to custody.

Elsewhere in the market, issuance of major dollar-pegged tokens USDT, USDC, and DAI has softened alongside lower spot trading volumes on centralized venues. Average daily turnover has slipped below $25 billion, down nearly 40% from early October, according to market data. Thinner spot activity reduces the stablecoin buffer available to absorb sell-side pressure, leaving Bitcoin more vulnerable to short-term volatility spikes. Santiment also pointed to diverging behavior among Bitcoin holder cohorts on-chain, a sign of mixed conviction during the consolidation.

ETF flows diverge as Solana draws yield-focused capital

Spot ETF flows underscore the shift in investor positioning. Data provider SoSoValue showed Bitcoin ETFs recording about $3.7 billion in net redemptions and Ether ETFs losing roughly $1.64 billion over recent weeks. In contrast, Solana-focused products drew approximately $369 million in inflows during November, with multiple days of net subscriptions even as crypto prices were under pressure.

Part of the appeal stems from staking yields. “Both institutions and retail holders are treating Solana as a yield-generating asset rather than a speculative trade,” Everstake co-founder and COO Bohdan Opryshko told Cointelegraph, citing native SOL staking rewards of roughly 5%–7%—an income profile that Bitcoin ETFs cannot replicate and that only a limited set of Ethereum products currently offer.

That said, momentum has cooled near resistance. SOL’s latest recovery stalled around $145 as Solana ETF flows turned negative for the first time since launch. Live dashboards from 99Bitcoins showed SOL up about 4.7% on the day with 24-hour volume above $5 billion, outpacing Bitcoin’s roughly 1%–2% move and Ether’s 3%–4% gain. Cointelegraph noted SOL has dropped from about $197 on Oct. 26 to the mid-$130s, a decline of roughly 30% over a month, despite a 14% rebound from Friday’s low near $121.50.

Market snapshot and policy developments

Bitcoin (BTC) held steady, reaching a high of $91,345—the strongest level since Nov. 20 and about 14% above this month’s low. Major altcoins including Ethereum (ETH) and Dash (DASH) also advanced alongside the broader market bounce.

On the policy front, South Korea’s National Assembly Political Affairs Committee is reviewing three bills related to stablecoin issuance submitted by ruling and opposition lawmakers, according to a report from local industry publication Bloomingbit. In Europe, the European Central Bank reiterated concerns that rapid growth in digital tokens could pose risks to financial stability, keeping regulatory scrutiny elevated even as institutional interest in tokenized and yield-bearing structures increases.

Despite the cross-currents, the broader takeaway from recent data is consistent: stablecoin metrics and ETF flows continue to shape crypto market liquidity. Low lending yields and softer spot volumes point to cautious risk-taking, while growing stablecoin reserves on major exchanges and selective inflows into yield-oriented altcoin products hint at latent demand and a rotation in investor preferences.

Bitcoin miner Greenidge Generation Holdings reported that a fire at its Dresden, New York, power-and-mining facility forced a full shutdown, with the site expected to remain de-energized for several weeks. The incident was caused by a malfunction in the facility’s electrical switchgear, according to a disclosure filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Fire Forces Shutdown at Dresden, NY Site

Greenidge said a fire broke out at its Bitcoin mining complex in Dresden, New York, after an electrical distribution device malfunctioned. The company operates both a power plant and a Bitcoin mining operation at the site, which has been taken fully offline following the incident.

Operations Taken Offline and De‑Energized

The company de-energized the facility to ensure safety and to assess damage, a process expected to keep the site offline for several weeks. The Dresden operation is one of Greenidge’s core locations and includes co-hosted mining activity with NYDIG.

SEC Filing and Disclosure

Details of the incident were provided in an 8-K filing with the SEC, indicating a material impact to operations. Greenidge has not publicly provided a detailed timeline for restoration beyond the multi-week de-energization period.

Industry Context

The incident underscores operational risks inherent in large-scale Bitcoin mining, which depends on high-voltage electrical infrastructure and complex power distribution systems. Any prolonged downtime can affect output and hosting services, particularly at integrated power-and-mining sites.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $90,000 mark in midweek trade, stabilizing after a brief pullback and keeping traders focused on a potential retest of six figures. The move comes as volatility remains elevated, with liquidity from long-term holders and futures positioning still influencing near-term direction.

Price action and market context

The largest cryptocurrency advanced roughly 3.6% to decisively break above the $90,000 psychological barrier and was last seen around $91,450, failing to clear resistance just under $92,000. The recovery follows a seven-day lapse below $90,000 and coincides with lighter holiday liquidity conditions. Some market observers also point to steadier institutional participation and new crypto investment products as supportive factors.

Key technical levels

• Immediate resistance: $92,000, followed by $93,400. A monthly close above $93,000 would be a constructive signal, according to some analysts.
• Higher targets: $96,000 as a near-term hurdle; a sustained breakout could open the $98,000–$105,000 resistance band. A monthly close above $102,400 is seen as notably bullish.
• Support: $90,000 remains the first line to hold. Below that, $88,000 is the next support, with a wider safety net around $80,000. Bitcoin has also defended deeper support areas near $83,500 and $82,000 in recent weeks.

Several traders expect range-bound action between $88,000 and $92,000 unless price breaks decisively. From a probabilistic standpoint, the broader corrective structure is viewed as intact so long as BTC holds above its Fibonacci support band and established demand zone.

What analysts are watching

Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG, noted that overleveraged positions and weaker projects have largely been washed out, potentially allowing longer-term holders to add exposure at lower prices. Separately, an analyst operating under the handle CrediBull Crypto highlighted $93,400 and $102,400 as key monthly-close thresholds. Failure to surpass the $96,000 region in the near term could keep December choppy, while a clean break above it would strengthen the case for a push toward the $100,000 area.

Outlook

Bitcoin’s $90,000 level remains fragile until spot demand, liquidity, and futures participation show more consistent improvement. A four-hour close and sustained hold above $90,000 would support a move toward the $98,000–$105,000 band, while a break back below $90,000 risks a retreat to $88,000 and, if pressure intensifies, the $80,000 zone. For now, traders are watching $92,000 on the topside and $90,000 on the downside as the immediate pivot levels.

Digital-asset investment products saw heavy outflows last week, led by Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, even as spot prices rebounded on rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December. XRP-linked products were a notable exception, recording net inflows amid broader risk aversion.

Fund Flows: BTC, ETH and SOL Lead Outflows as XRP Attracts Inflows

According to a weekly report from CoinShares, crypto investment funds posted total net outflows of $1.94 billion last week. The breakdown shows pronounced de-risking from the largest vehicles:

• Bitcoin: $1.27 billion in outflows
• Ethereum: $589 million in outflows
• Solana: $156 million in outflows
• XRP: $89.3 million in inflows

XRP was among the few major altcoins to register net inflows, contrasting with broad withdrawals across digital-asset products. CoinShares tracks flows into exchange-traded products and other institutional vehicles, which can reflect shifting sentiment among professional and retail investors.

Prices Rebound on Rate-Cut Bets

Crypto prices recovered into Friday alongside a broader risk-on move driven by growing confidence in a December Fed rate cut. Odds for a cut rose from roughly 40% last week to about 82%, according to prediction markets and interest-rate futures data cited from Polymarket and CME FedWatch.

Bitcoin reclaimed key levels after last week’s sharp sell-off, trading back above $87,700 and briefly pushing above $90,000 nearly a week after dipping to around $81,000. Ethereum rebounded from support near $2,749, while XRP recovered above $2.08 after defending the $1.96 area. Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum rose about 0.70%, XRP added 0.40%, and Solana gained 0.80%, with USDC little changed around 0.03%.

Large-cap altcoins often respond quickly to improving liquidity conditions and a softer U.S. dollar. While narratives around potential future ETF developments and policy clarity continue to shape medium-term expectations for XRP, near-term moves appear closely tied to macro signals and overall risk sentiment.

Technical Picture and Key Levels

On a technical basis, Ethereum’s relative strength index (RSI) is rebounding from oversold territory, indicating early signs of seller exhaustion and the potential for stabilization. For ETH, a failure to hold recent gains could invite another test of nearby support zones, while sustained momentum would improve the short-term bias.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are attempting to base around recently reclaimed levels after recovering roughly 5%, 7% and 6% so far this week, respectively. Analysts also note Bitcoin is holding key Fibonacci support areas following last week’s decline, a development that could help underpin broader market tone if maintained.

What to Watch

• Macro catalysts: Evolving Fed rate expectations and upcoming U.S. inflation prints remain central to risk appetite across crypto.
• Flows and liquidity: Whether outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum products abate—and if XRP’s inflow trend persists—will help gauge institutional positioning.
• Derivatives and volatility: Monthly options expiry and changes in leverage may influence short-term price swings.

With sentiment still fragile after the recent drawdown, the continuation of this week’s recovery likely hinges on a combination of institutional and retail demand, improving liquidity, and steadier macro conditions.

Crypto markets steadied to start the week as Bitcoin showed signs of a potential local bottom, while Ethereum community debates and regulatory moves kept industry attention divided. Key developments included CoinShares withdrawing a U.S. filing for a staked Solana product, MoonPay securing a New York trust license, and new security warnings spanning supply-chain malware and physical extortion targeting crypto holders.

Markets: Bitcoin attempts a base as positioning shifts

Analysts noted Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) approaching oversold territory, a condition that has historically preceded short-term rebounds. Derivatives data also point to an uptick in long positioning from larger traders, suggesting some “whale” accounts are adding exposure.

On-chain watchers flagged significant Bitcoin movements, with roughly 87,000 BTC appearing to leave institution-tracked addresses within a 24-hour window. Large transfers can reflect internal reshuffling by custodians, redemptions, or risk reduction; absent clear attribution, market participants cautioned against assuming outright selling.

Macro remained a key backdrop. One analyst at Bitunix characterized conditions as a phase of “geopolitical risk repricing, technical resistance, monetary easing, and labor-market slowdown,” with capital flows skewing conservative and short-term oriented.

Ethereum: Gas debate and privacy framing

Ethereum commentator Anthony Sassano said the network’s gas limit moving toward 180 million could set a “floor” for next year, underscoring ongoing discussions about throughput and block capacity. The gas limit governs how much computation can be included per block and directly affects network throughput and transaction fees. Any increase typically raises debates around validator load, decentralization trade-offs, and client performance.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin reiterated that privacy should be treated as standard digital “hygiene” rather than an optional feature. The comment aligns with a broader industry push for default privacy protections that do not compromise compliance obligations.

Regulation and business: CoinShares pulls SOL filing; MoonPay gains NY trust license

• CoinShares withdraws U.S. staked Solana application: The digital asset manager withdrew its filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a staked Solana product, according to a recent notice. Staking components in fund structures have drawn regulatory scrutiny in the U.S., prompting several issuers to adjust or rescind proposals.
• MoonPay secures New York trust charter: MoonPay obtained a limited purpose trust license from the New York State Department of Financial Services, enabling the company to offer crypto custody and over-the-counter trading in the state. The charter expands institutional-facing services in the country’s most closely regulated digital asset market.
• UK tax proposals for DeFi: The UK advanced proposals to clarify the tax treatment of decentralized finance activities such as lending and staking, part of a broader effort to provide regulatory certainty for digital assets.
• Russia and derivatives exposure: Local reporting indicated Russian households have collectively allocated several billion rubles to cryptocurrency derivatives, with activity concentrated among a small number of large participants.

Security: Supply-chain malware, physical extortion, and wallet risks

A crypto-focused supply-chain attack drew fresh attention after reports of a self-propagating “worm” affecting developer systems. Slava Demchuk, CEO of forensics firm AMLBot, told Cointelegraph that “once a system is infected, the worm harvests secrets, replicates itself, makes private repositories public, and then continues to spread.” Demchuk said systems installing compromised packages are at risk, but there has been “no mention of wallet keys or other such assets” to date.

Separately, more than 60 cases of physical coercion and crypto-related abductions were reported across multiple jurisdictions, including France, Israel, and the UAE. Observers warn the irreversible nature of blockchain transfers makes such crimes attractive to perpetrators. Commentator Mario Nawfal noted that self-custody requires robust personal security practices, including secure storage arrangements.

Security firms also cautioned about malicious Chrome extensions targeting Solana users, while INTERPOL has highlighted cryptocurrency fraud as a global threat in recent assessments.

Stablecoin watch: Reserve Protocol’s design goals

Interest in alternative stablecoin architectures persisted. The Reserve Protocol aims to facilitate asset-backed, yield-bearing stablecoins on Ethereum through smart contracts. Its governance and insurance token, Reserve Rights (RSR), is used for protocol governance, staking to support system security, and providing insurance-like backstops designed to help maintain stability. Reserve has promoted its model as a tool for jurisdictions with high inflation, though real-world adoption varies by market and regulatory conditions.

Outlook

With crypto prices consolidating, projects emphasizing transparent governance, thorough audits, and phased rollouts are gaining traction among institutions seeking robust infrastructure. Market direction in the near term may hinge on macro policy signals and liquidity conditions, while security and regulatory clarity remain top priorities across the sector.

Bitcoin Holds Cautious Range as Analysts Weigh Recession Risks, Liquidity, and Technical Levels

Bitcoin is consolidating after sharp swings, with traders watching the monthly close, liquidity measures, and options positioning for direction. Views remain split: some see asymmetric upside if key supports hold, while others warn that thin liquidity and weak demand could force another leg lower before a sustained recovery.

Macro Backdrop and Positioning

Several strategists argue that Bitcoin is increasingly “pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” describing the current risk-reward setup as asymmetric. Gains in AI-led equities and heavy crypto leverage have widened the performance gap between bitcoin and stocks, underscoring cross-asset divergences that could amplify volatility.

Market sensitivity to policy signals remains elevated. Even subtle shifts in tone from Federal Reserve officials have been enough to reshape expectations across risk assets, particularly crypto. Traders are closely monitoring rates, liquidity, and broader equity moves for spillover effects.

Key Technical Levels and Momentum

• After a brief dip toward the $80,000 area, a bullish hammer reversal appeared on intraday charts, prompting hopes for a seasonal bounce.
• Short-term momentum improves above $88,000 on four-hour charts, but sustaining $90,000–$92,000 is viewed as essential for a trend reversal.
• One analyst, Stanley, said that if bitcoin holds above nearby support zones, a path toward $102,000 remains plausible. A drop below $88,500–$89,000, he added, would weaken bullish continuation expectations and could trigger a short-term correction.
• Other technical notes point out that price action has been trading below the 20-day and 200-day EMAs, and while RSI has lifted from oversold territory, it still lacks clear bullish divergence.

Elliott Wave Scenarios and Timelines

Some Elliott Wave analysts continue to frame the market as an ongoing corrective fourth wave, targeting a broad $86,000–$101,000 zone, from which a rally toward $164,000–$216,000 could still develop if higher lows hold.

Separately, December seasonality and post-halving dynamics are cited as potential tailwinds. Based on historical cycles, one estimate suggests bitcoin could extend gains by 25%–30% from current levels by Christmas 2025, implying a range near $120,000–$125,000. Analysts caution, however, that early bullish signals may be unreliable and that confirmation requires sustained momentum and improving liquidity.

Catalysts, Risks, and Outlook

Volatility is expected to remain elevated into year-end. Potential medium-term supports include clearer regulation and easing interest rates, which could underpin a more durable rebound into 2026. “I’m not worried about bitcoin,” one analyst noted, while adding that the broader altcoin market needs to mature as investors look for tangible revenues or staking yields rather than hype.

In a more aggressive scenario, Hayes suggested bitcoin could rebound toward $200,000–$250,000 if equity markets correct by 10%–20% and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5%, potentially prompting new liquidity measures. By contrast, Tallbacken Capital Advisors CEO Michael Purves warned that “longer term dip buying right now appears less likely and bearish momentum is reinforced,” highlighting the risk that rallies fail below resistance.

For now, bitcoin remains in a fragile equilibrium. A firm hold above the psychological $90,000 threshold would bolster bullish scenarios, while a decisive break below high-$80,000 support raises the odds of another corrective leg. Traders are watching the monthly close, liquidity gauges, and options flows for the next signal.

BlackRock moved approximately $390.8 million in Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime as its spot bitcoin ETF faced heavy November outflows, underscoring continued volatility across crypto markets.

BlackRock Moves 4,471 BTC to Coinbase Prime

BlackRock deposited around 4,471 BTC—worth roughly $390.8 million—to Coinbase Prime, an institutional trading and custody platform. The asset manager did not disclose the purpose of the transfer. Market analysts said such exchange-bound movements are often associated with liquidity needs for rebalancing or potential sales during periods of heightened volatility.

ETF Outflows Accelerate in November

The transfer comes amid a week of pronounced redemptions from BlackRock’s spot crypto products. The firm’s spot bitcoin ETF has recorded about $2.2 billion in net outflows in November, while more than $1 billion exited its Bitcoin trust and approximately $559 million left its Ethereum trust over the past week, according to market flow data cited by analysts. Earlier in the month, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) also saw more than $66 million in net outflows across two consecutive trading sessions during a sharp selloff.

Market Reaction and Price Action

Bitcoin’s price action has remained choppy. Over the last 24 hours, BTC dipped to about $86,129 before rebounding above $90,300. The move builds on a broader fourth-quarter pattern marked by swift reversals, following a late-November correction that briefly pushed prices below $80,000 and spurred profit-taking among institutional holders.

Institutional View on Bitcoin’s Role

Despite the turbulence, institutional asset managers say Bitcoin’s role in portfolios continues to evolve. In a podcast published Friday, Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, described Bitcoin’s global payments use case as “out-of-the-money option-value upside” for clients—suggesting many still view the asset primarily through a portfolio construction lens rather than as a day-to-day payment network.

Some analysts argue that ongoing integration into institutional workflows could encourage larger, more systematic allocations over time, potentially reducing volatility as market depth and liquidity improve.

Key figures

• 4,471 BTC (approx. $390.8M) transferred to Coinbase Prime
• $2.2B in November outflows from BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF
• Over $1B outflows from its Bitcoin trust and $559M from its Ethereum trust over the last week
• Bitcoin 24-hour range: $86,129 low to above $90,300

China’s Bitcoin mining sector is quietly rebounding four years after a nationwide ban, as operators tap cheap electricity and excess data center capacity in energy-rich regions. Industry estimates suggest China has regained roughly 14% of global hashrate by late October 2025, placing it third worldwide, according to Hashrate Index data cited by Reuters.

Mining Activity Returns Despite 2021 Ban

Beijing’s 2021 crackdown forced miners to shut down or relocate abroad, but recent industry data and miner accounts indicate a steady resurgence within several western and southwestern provinces, including Xinjiang. The recovery is largely occurring outside formal approval and reflects uneven enforcement across local jurisdictions.

Economics and Infrastructure Drive the Rebound

Miners and market participants say the revival is being propelled by a combination of lower energy costs, overbuilt compute infrastructure, and improved mining economics as Bitcoin’s price climbed in October.

• Cheap electricity in energy-rich provinces
• Unused energy capacity and surplus data centers
• Improved profitability on higher Bitcoin prices
• Policy ambiguity and softer enforcement in some locales

“The resurgence of mining activity in China is one of the most important signals the market has seen in years,” said Patrick Gruhn, CEO of crypto market infrastructure provider Perpetuals.com, in comments reported by Reuters. Gruhn added that the trend raises questions about decentralization as hashrate concentrates among a few leading jurisdictions.

China Regains Global Standing

After its market share fell to near zero in 2021, China has climbed back to an estimated 14% of global hashrate as of late October, Hashrate Index data show. That recovery positions the country behind only two other nations by mining capacity. The resurgence underscores the pull of low-cost power and available rack space created by a surge in data center construction over the past two years.

What to Watch

Industry participants are watching whether Beijing formalizes tolerance for mining in certain regions or reasserts enforcement. Concentration risks remain a focal point for the Bitcoin network as a handful of countries now dominate global hashrate. For now, economic incentives supporting underground operations—especially in Xinjiang and other energy-abundant provinces—show few signs of fading.